11:00 – Melzer v Monaco
Rankings are 12 and 41. Head to heads are 4-1 to Monaco although the 4 wins were all on clay.
Melzer played the game of his life to knock out Nadal. He is one of my favourite players but I couldn’t see him continuing the tennis he played in the first set which he won 6-1. However he held it together and when it really mattered at the end of the third set, where many players would have choked he played some amazing tennis.
Often when a player beats one of the top players their form in the next match slumps. I don’t expect that to happen to Melzer today. He has been around long enough to deal with the win quickly so he can concentrate on the next one.
Monaco has had some good wins this week and destroyed Zverev in the last round. He lost to Melzer though earlier this month and will have his work cut out for him today.
They hold serve 84% and 74%. Monaco’s stats are slightly better on return of serve.
Melzer is by far the better fast court player and whilst I expect Monaco to make him work every step of the way. If he can repeat even a fraction of the form he showed yesterday its hard to see Monaco getting the win.
Back Melzer from the start5 or on serve.
Update: I thought melzer would be able to handle the fact that he had beaten Nadal the day before and just get on with this match. unfortunately he was well below his form of the previous day. Monaco played well and won 6-7, 7-5, 6-2.
13:00 – Soderling v Federer
Rankings are 5 and 3. Head to heads are 13-2 to Federer.
Soderling has come through 2 potentially difficult matches taking them both in straight sets against Ferrer and Tipsarevic. His serve has been working well and he hasn’t been serving as many double faults as we often see from him.
Federer has quietly gone about his business this week. We haven’t heard much about him as he has never really been in trouble.
Over the last month they held serve 82% and 95%. Stats on return of serve are very similar although Federer converts more break point chances.
The head to head score puts Federer firmly as favourite. We could see a great match today with both players having chances to win but I have to stick with Fed. A starting price of 1.37 isn’t something you see often on him but I may hold off from backing him from the start in the hope of a slightly better backing price.
Alternatively both should be ok to back on serve but stay away from Soderling’s first game as he will be nervous early on.
Update: Soderling was poor to say the least and Federer took full advantage.
Fed won 6-1, 6-1.