It has been a very frustrating season on the tips for straight bets. One step forward and one step back sums things up very well.
Over the course of a season the good luck and the bad luck evens itself out. It’s fair to say the gambling gods decided to get the shit luck out of the way early for me. I had a run of tie break losses that would have been of some comfort to Robin Haase.
No tips service should rely on luck other than to rely on it to be neutral. I decided I needed to find a further edge to compensate for periods when the luck stinks!
During August I spent a ridiculous amount of time back testing the effect of different stats and combination of stats on the outcome of matches. What I found was a bit of a surprise. A particular stat taken over a specific time period AND in combination with the other stats I use is extremely significant to the final result. At the end of the day a tennis match is between two humans who on any given day can win the match so you are never going to find something that gives a high success rate but as long as you take value a hit rate above 55% can bring worthwhile returns.
September will be the first full month using the tweaked selection process and so far is running at 15% ROI.
The Shark Tips service is intended to be used solely with Betfair.
For more information please visit www.sharktips.co.uk