17:00 – Goerges v Oudin
Rankings are 35 and 75. They haven’t played before.
Goerges has been below par recently. Her service holds on hard courts have dropped significantly from 71% (past 12 months) to 61%.
Oudin has improved her serving performance slightly but still only holds serve 58% on hard courts ( over the last month ).
Oudin has better stats on return of serve. She is also playing in her home country which should never be ignored.
I advise watching the first few games and if Goerges’ serve isn’t as strong as usual then laying her is a good option. In an ideal world she will serve badly but manage to get an early break of the Oudin serve so we get to lay at a lower price. Goerges relies heavily on her serve and her confidence can quickly drop if it isn’t working.
Despite the rankings being fairly wide apart I expect this to be quite close with the home crowd giving Oudin the extra boost she needs.
Its all on the Goerges serve. If she serves well she wins. If she starts the match serving badly then Oudin has a great chance.
If Oudin takes the first set, lay her.
Update: The match started as hoped with a break by Goerges. I layed at 1.42 . Oudin then broke back and I could close the trade at 1.82. Oudin took the first set. Unfortunately Goerges wasn’t able to level the match and Oudin won 7-5, 6-3.
22:00 – Larsson v Rodionova
Rankings are 69 and 72. They have never played.
These two players start fairly even on Befair with Lrsson being slight favourite at 1.85 .
Both are in poor form but Larsson isn’t quite as bad so she is my pick to win the match. However ovr the last 3 months she has managed to hold serve just 50% of the time. Rodionova has held under 39% of the time.
This is one of those matches where you should be able to rely on there being many breaks of serve.
In the first set back Larsson when she is receiving. Her stats on return of serve are the better of the two players.
If the first set is close, lay the set winner.
Update: Liquidity wasn’t great on this match. Larsson won 6-4, 7-6.