Sony Ericsson Open – Monday

16:00 – Wawrinka v Youzhny

 

Rankings are 23 and 15. Head to heads are 2-1 in Wawrinka’s favour although both his victories came on clay.

 

Wawrinka feels more at home on clay courts.

 

Youzhny has reached 2 finals this season and has played some fantastic tennis. He seems to be in good form again this week.

 

Youzhny wins 82% of his service games. Back him on serve.

 

It’s worth noting that Wawrinka saves 68% of break points against him. He seems to save his big serves for when he needs them although he usually isn’t consistent enough to back on serve.

 

Update: Youzhny was awful in the first set and it looked like Wawrinka was going to rush through the match is very little time. He took the opening set 6-1.

 

In the second set Youzhny came to life and Wawrinka seemed to lose a little self belief. It was a very close set which was decided on a tie break with Youzhny winning it.

 

By this stage I was hedged out for -£50 having initially hedged out at -£90 when I had to go out. As I was waiting for my wife to come out of work I was following the game on Betfair Mobile which now shows you the score as well as the price. This was towards the end of the second set and I layed Wawrinka for £100 at around 1.56 as he was serving to take the game into the second set tie break. When I got home Youzhny had won the tie break and I was then able to hedge for -£50.

 

I didn’t really follow the third set as the opening games were full of errors on both sides. I decided to take a break and accept the loss. As I waited for the next game I checked back and Wawrinka was serving at 5-6. He went 15-40 down and I backed Youzhny. He completed the break. I could have let it run but with the number of errors I decided to hedge for -£30. A vast improvement from -£90!

 

Youzhny served out the match to win 1-6, 7-6, 7-5.

 

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22:00 – Baghdatis v Cilic

 

Rankings are 30 and 9. They haven’t met before.

 

Baghdatis has improved his game dramatically over the last year. He beat Federer earlier this month.

 

Cilic reached the Quarter Final stage in Dubai although his form has been a little below par in recent weeks.

 

Both players’ first serves percentage are poor at 56 ( Cilic) and 52.  Despite that they win a high percentage of their service games with Cilic winning 85% and Baghdatis 83%.

 

Back Cilic on serve. You can bet he has been working on improving that first serve success rate as it is his biggest weapon. If he can get it above 65% and throw down a few aces Baghdatis could get frustrated and may sulk.

 

Update:  A very tight match with neither player doing much to improve their first serve percentages. Both managed to hold serve in the early games and then Cilic won the break. he held on to take the set. A simlar story in the 2nd set with some very close games. Again, Cilic broke and held on for the match.

 

Backing Cilic on serve allowed me to make back the loss from the first game 😉

 

Cilic won 6-3, 6-4.

    Trading Guide