Kvitova’s results this week look great on paper. In reality things could have been very different. Doi wasn’t dominated the way she should have been. The second round saw Minella controlling the early exchanges and breaking Kvitova’s serve twice in the first set. Kvitova has been suffering with a cold and perhaps she is getting over that as her last 2 matches were more comfortable.
Vinci has lost just 1 set this week which was to Bertens who played at a very high level. Vinci worked out she had to be more aggressive and that did the trick. In her last 2 matches she won by identical scores ( 6-1, 6-0 ).
I think the surface favours Vinci today but this should be close. Kvitova’s serve has been good but not consistently so.
I will be looking to lay Kvitova below 1.30.
Update: Vinci won 7-6, 6-1.
In Casablanca Robredo and Anderson will battle for the title. Both players were exceptional in the opening match. In the rounds since then Robredo has had a couple of bad sets although I feel he has had tougher opponents in Paire and Wawrinka. In the third sets he has been mentally stronger winning them 6-0 (Paire) and 6-2 (Wawrinka).
Anderson’s opening set in the semi final was poor and he lost it 2-6 against Klizan. but other than that set he has served well all week.
My selection process can’t pick a winner but my gut feeling is to go with Robredo. However he is more likely to throw in a couple of bad service games. Either way I don’t see this being a straight sets win so I will look to lay Anderson if he trades below 1.25 to 1.30.
Update: Robredo won 7-6, 4-6, 6-3.
Our other final is in Houston and has Almagro up against John Isner.
They have played twice before and Almagro took them both. All 9 of the sets they have played were settled in either tie breaks or by a single break separating them.
Almagro starts at 1.29 and given how close the sets will be That has to be a lay. Isner isn’t great on return of serve but I’d say Almagro is the more likely to have a single bad service game. There will be at least 1 tie break today.
Of Isner’s last 10 finals 9 of them were in America. He won 5 of them including the last 2.
If you don’t count exhibition events Almagro’s last 10 finals were on clay. He won 6 of those finals.
I expect 3 sets with Almagro coming through in the end.