Sunday 28th July 2013 – The Finals

I’m a bit late to post on the Baku final so I will preview the others once I have traded that. Hard to go against Svitolina but the price isn’t great.

Update: We got a good price early and Svitolina won in 2 sets, 6-4, 6-4.

 

Youzhny has been playing very aggressively this week and it is a tactic that suits his game well. As soon as he tries to play defensively things start to go wrong. His back hand has been particularly effective.

Haase is clearly also in great form and has also enjoyed success with attacking play. However I can’t help wondering if Haase would be in this final if Lopez had been 100%. in the semi final.

Haase has reached 2 Challenger finals this season. Both were on clay and both were lost to a player ranked in the 150’s. Youzhny also doesn’t reach many finals but his only one this year was lost to Federer on the grass in Halle.

If Youzhny keeps up with his aggressive style I feel he has the edge today. His starting price offers zero value though at 1.44 . Wait for a higher price.

Update: The price never went above SP.

Youzhny won 6-3, 6-4.

 

Both finalists in Umag had pretty epic semi finals. In terms of comparing epicness (yeah I know it’s not a word but go with it) the Fognini v Monfils match will take some beating. Fognini won the opening set 6-0 and Monfils looked unable to compete properly as an injury was forcing him to power down on his strokes. Fognini’s price dropped to below 1.10 ( which just screamed out to be laid! ). Monfils fought back and won a break of serve which he managed to hold on to and took the second set. Fognin then took a 5-0 lead in the third before Monfils took advantage of a cramping Fognini to get back to 6-5 . He came so close to breaking for the match but Fognini took it into a tie break which he won.

Robredo and Seppi didn’t quite match that drama but their third set was on a knife edge as Robredo struggled to hold onto an early break. He saved countless break back points and finally served out the match. He looked exhausted after the match.

Fognini is going for his third consecutive title and the last thing he needed was an energy sapping semi final. He starts as favourite today and I expect him to make a good start but his body is going to start to hurt if Robredo keeps it close.

Robredo’s tactic against Seppi when he got tired was to stand 2 metres behind the baseline and it wasn’t until he stepped forward in the third set that he was able to take control. If Fognini puts him under early pressure and he falls further back again he could  be in real trouble.

Fognini will want to get this won quickly. He will play through some of the pain but if he starts to cramp early that isn’t something you can play  through.

The title winner will probably be decided by whoever is the last man standing.

Update: Fognini had nothing left.

Robredo won 6-0, 6-3.

 

I haven’t really been watching the American tournaments this week but looking at the scores John Isner is serving well but as usual isn’t doing much on return of serve. All his sets this week have either been tie breaks or 6-4 with a single 7-5 thrown in for good measure. Anderson can match him in this type of match but on his day can be a better receiver than the big American.

This will be settled by small margins and a point her or there and its pretty much impossible to predict a winner with any certainty. Isner leads the head to heads 5-4 and has home advantage so I understand why h is a very slight favourite.

Update: Isner won 6-7, 7-6, 7-6.

 

I won’t spend much time on the Radwanska v Cibulkova final and only addicts will be trading it.  Radwanska leads the head to heads 4-0 and has a far superior record in finals.

Update: Didn’t see this coming. Cibulkova won 2-6, 6-4, 6-4.

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