Sunday 29th July

I read yesterday that Kohlschreiber had withdrawn from the Olympics with a foot injury. It seems he was playing with the injury in Austria where one of his main sponsors is also a sponsor of that event. This is the second time that he will miss the Olympics due to injury. There are people on the net calling him all the names under the Sun but money talks and sponsors have a lot of power over their sports stars. There is a real chance that Kohlschreiber will not get another opportunity to take part in an Olympic tournament. So whilst I feel sympathy for the player it is quite a funny story that the betting community thought he was going to intentionally lose in the early rounds last week ( He was priced as underdog against Rosol, a player he had beaten easily at Wimbledon) and in the end he never reached London.

Surprise losers yesterday include Berdych who went down to Darcis in straight sets and Verdasco who lost his first ever match to Istomin. Unexpected perhaps but both players have a tendency to put in poor performances. Maybe the lack of prize money reduced their motivation.

Falla has given Federer problems in the past at Wimbledon and he took the world number 1 to 3 sets yesterday.

In the women’s tournament Stosur went down in 3 sets to clay courter Suarez Navarro and Cibulkova lost in 2 sets to Pironkova.

Brit Keothavong looked like she may knock out Wozniacki when she won the first set but it turned out to be a classic Woz match who came back to win in 3 sets.

 

In Sunday’s games we are almost starved of value. Picking a favourite who is not motivated by representing their country in an event that comes around just once every four years but offers no financial reward ( at least not in prize money) isn’t easy and the markets are assuming that favourites will win. Prices in the men’s games especially have been pushed low so laying could be the tactic of the day.

Cilic starts at 1.31 against Melzer who is always unpredictable but has the game to trouble the Croat. Remember these matches are the best of 3 sets so favourites can’t rely on recovering over 5 sets. Worth a lay from the start.

Update: Cilic broke early but Melzer broke back and took it to a tie break.

Cilic won 7-6, 6-2.

 

Davydenko has won the last 3 meetings with Stepanek and starts as massive underdog on the markets. Stepanek is at 1.36 . Davydenko’s form has shown sign’s of returning this season but just when you think he is back he crumbles. I don’t expect the Russian to win today but I feel he is capable of winning a set and it has to be a lay at that price.

Update: Davydenko won 6-4, 6-3.

 

Laura Robson gets a late entry as a replacement for Martic. She is up against Safarova who reached the quarter finals at Wimbledon. Robson reached the semi finals in Italy and whilst that was on clay it will have given her a huge boost to her confidence. I think I will be backing her with part stake and will see how she  goes.

Update: Excellent performance. Robson won 7-6, 6-4.

 

Monaco starts at 1.67 against Goffin. Monaco has reached 2 recent finals on clay winning the most recent one. He reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon and the 4th round at Roland Garros so his confidence is high. Goffin will make him fight for it and we may see Monaco up around evens in the first set but I think he will be too strong for the Belgian.

Update: Lots of breaks in the first set but Monaco scraped through. easy second set.

Monaco won 6-4, 6-1.

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