Sunday’s matches, 19th February

ABN Amro World Tennis Tournment Final

Federer v Del Potro:

Head to heads are 8-2 in Federer’s favour. He has won both their recent matches (last 2 years) in straight sets, both on hard courts.

Fed’s price opened at around 1.60 but moved out 10 ticks pretty quickly and has remained around 1.70 since (other than a spike up to above 1.80).  I don’t think many expected Davydenko to take Federer to 3 sets. However the Russian showed some of the old Davy’s form, as he had done to beat Gasquet, but couldn’t maintain that for the third set.

I also don’t think many expected Del Potro to beat Berdych so easily. Prior to that match only Nadal had beaten Bedych in 2012.

Del Potro has raced back into the top 10 following his extended break from the tour due to injury. I feel he still has more to give but he is capable in his current form of making more of a match of this than he did in Federer’s easy straight sets win at the Australian Open.

I think Federer was taken by surprise at the level of Davydenko’s play during the opening couple of sets yesterday but was able to step up a gear to get the job done.

An advantage that Fed has over a lot of players is that before they made it to the big stage Fed was their tennis hero. How must that feel to look up  a second before you serve and see Federer staring at you preparing o receive that serve? The better and more established the player the less this will have an effect but at this level any edge is significant.

Federer has the experience and court-craft to out wit Del Potro who will have to rely on his serve and powerful forehand to keep him in the game.

Federer has won the last 25 matches he has played on hard courts.

I’m looking  forward to watching the match and  expect Federer to take it in 3 sets.

Update: A commanding performance from Federer. He never really looked like losing.

Federer won 6-1, 6-4.

 

San Hose Final 23:00

Raonic v Istomin:

These two have never played.

There have been several players who have found unexpected form in 2012 and one of them is most certainly Denis Istomin. He reached the semi final in Sydney beating Gasquet on the way. To get to this final he has beaten Querrey who plays his best tennis in America, Roddick, another American who admittedly is carrying an injury and Benneteau who has been in great form for many months.

Raonic got some revenge for Harrison’s win over him in their previous meeting. Both men served well in the first set and it went as expected to a tie break. Raonic took the tie break and also took control of the second set.

Raonic is currently at 1.35 on Betfair.  think there is a very good chance that the first set is close so we will see a higher price. Raonic’s  serve has been at  a level that its probably enough to win him the match but his grounnd strokes yesterday were also of a high standard.

I didn’t see Istomin’s match as it was in the early hours but when he is in form as he obviously is he takes the ball very early and rushes his opponennt into errors. In order to hurt Raonic he needs to get hold of the Canadian’s serve to move into a rally. He won’t get a lot of chances to break and will have to take the few he gets.

Has to be a Raonic win for me but I want a higher price before getting involved . 1.60 at leat.

Update: Raonic won 7-6, 6-2.

 

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