betfair tennis

16th January 2015

Just 3 matches being played tonight and in the morning. Heather Watson’s final with Brengle in Hobart and Troicki’s match with Kukushkin have been covered for the Shark Tips service. Suggested bets and the reasoning for them have been sent to subscribers. You can sign up for the tips using the links in the menu bar at the top of this page.

 

That leaves the third final.

ATP Heineken Open, Auckland, 01:30 – Mannarino v Vesely

Vesely has a slightly better stats on serve on hard courts over the past 6 months. Mannarino’s numbers on return of serve are stronger.

Both players have been serving well this week. Veseley has been broken just twice in his main draw matches. Mannarino was broken 4 times.

Mannarino was pushed very close in the semi final by Pouille. He eventually won 7-5 in the third set. Vesely won in two close sets over Anderson.

Both men are in their first ATP final. They have never played so will need a few games to work each other out. Add that fact to the nerves that are unavoidable and we could see a scrappy first set. Vesely is the bigger server and if he can go onto automatic pilot from the line I’d expect him to take the opening set.

Vesely starts at 1.65 which feel a little low. 1.85 is a fairer price for him in this situation. Mannarino has played some inspired tennis at times this week.

If I can get around 1.80 on Vesely in the early games I will back him. I think we have a good chance of seeing 3 sets. It is difficult to pick the outright winner as it depends who handles the nervy latter stages the best.

   
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15th January 2015

ATP Apia International, Sydney, 04:30 – Kukushkin v L Mayer

Kukushkin knocked out Del Potro in 2 tie breaks last night. Wins a set subscribers should have been on it!

He takes on Leo Mayer in the semi finals. They start at evens.

Kukushkin came through the qualification rounds so has already played 6 matches. He hasn’t dropped a set yet.

Mayer had lost his first match in his last 4 tournaments but has had 3 good wins this week to reach the semis. He has served extremely well so far and has averaged over 80% of points won on his first serve. He has been broken just once in 3 matches.

Kukushkin has only been broken 3 times in his main draw matches. There’s a high chance of at least one tie break tonight.

Mayer has a better tie break record for the last 12 months on all surfaces but Kukushkin’s is stronger on hard courts. However based on just this week Mayer has a slight edge based on the number of break points faced.

I am favouring Mayer to get the win. There will be plenty of opportunities for backing both players on serve. Entering at 0-15 is preferable.

 

 

WTA Hobart International, 06:30 – Brengle v Nara

They have played twice before but they were in  2010 and 2011. Nara won both in straight sets.

Brengle has improved her game a great deal since then and is ranked inside the top 100. She had to play two matches yesterday. 4 of the 5 sets were very close. That will have an effect on her game today.

Brengle has played 6 matches so far as she had to get through the qualification rounds. If Brengle was as fresh as Nara then I would have her as favourite.

Nara has struggled on serve and in particular her second serve. She starts as slight favourite at 1.83.

If Brengle can find the energy she should start the match better than her opponent but I expect her to run out of steam. I will lay her when she is an early break ahead.

Nara to win in 2 tight sets or more likely three.

 

 

 

WTA Apia International, Sydney, 08:30 – Pliskova v Kvitova

They have only played once which was last September. That was on a hard court and Kvitova won in 3 sets.

In her semi final win over Kerber Pliskova lost just 1 point on her first serve and didn’t face a single break point. She didn’t serve quite as well against Suarez Navarro in the quarter final but she has looked very solid all week.

Kvitova started her season well with a semi final finish in Shenzhen. This week has been quite a typical week for her. She had a close set with both Peng and Pironkova and was taken to 3 sets by Gajdosova in the quarter final.

This one has 3 setter written all over it. More often than not Pliskova starts quickly when she is in form. Kvitova starts at 1.50 and a lay of her below 1.35 in the early games could work well.

I am going with a Kvitova win in 3 sets.

 

 

   
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