trade tennis

2nd May 2014

I did say on Twitter that I would add to yesterday’s post but I never got to it. When I say that I will add more matches I genuinely mean it at the time but unless there are matches going on until late evening I rarely get the opportunity.

 

The first 3 matches of the day are all covered for the Shark Tips. Not much luck with the picks yesterday with Delbonis and Bacsinszky losing and Ramos failing to take us into the 3rd set we needed for the overs even though he was a double break up in the second set!

 

ATP Munich, 12:00 – The prices aren’t great today. Haas takes on Seppi and starts as a 1.40 favourite.  He leads the head to heads 4-1 and has won their last 3 meetings. They included a match on clay in Madrid last season which Haas won easily for the loss of just 3 games.

Both were in decent form in the last round although if Ramos didn’t have shit for brains Seppi could have been in trouble in the second set at 1-4. Haas struggled to hold serve at times and that won’t get any easier against Seppi.

Haas gets more motivated in front of a home crowd so will be giving everything today but I think we will see a higher price on him. I will look to back him at break point for part stake and add the rest if/when he is broken.

 

ATP Portugal, 14:00Raonic is having a decent season so far and has been playing some great tennis on the clay.

Berlocq is a very capable clay courter but has a terrible record against top 10 players. he has lost his last 18 matches against top 10 opponents.

Berlocq played a good match against Kubot and gave away very little on his serve. I think he has a chance to nick a set in this one if he brings his very best tennis to the court.

Raonic starts at 1.36 but I think we will see above 1.60 in the first set as long as Berlocq serves well.

 

ATP Munich, 14:00Fognini started very well against Brown and went into a 3-0 lead. It looked like he was out to make a point that he was over his pathetic tantrums and behaviour. However Brown pulled back to 3-3 and went on to take the set into a tie break which Fognini won. The second set was one way traffic.

Bellucci has had 2 good wins so far over Dodig and Delbonis. His serve had looked shaky in the Dodig match but yesterday was very reliable.

They have played once before which Fognini won but it was in 2011. This is one of those matches that if the favourite really wants it he will win.

Fognini will be able to deal with the Bellucci serve infinitely better than Delbonis did. His price of 1.50 would be a scary back and especially if he makes a slow start. I may miss out but I will wait for 1.70 in the early games.

 

ATP, Portugal, 16:00 – What a week local lad Elias is having. He was handed a wild card entry for the tournament. I expected him to beat Volandri and had backed him but I was frustrated that he wasted 16 break point chances against the WTA serve of Volandri. I didn’t give him much chance against Garcia Lopez as long as the Spaniard didn’t have one eye on Madrid.  He played a very impressive match and won in 3 sets cheered on by the locals.

Hanescu so often gives the impression that he just doesn’t care whether he wins or loses. When he really wants to do well however he can be good to watch. He has needed to battle for 3 sets in both his matches which does suggest he is up for it this week. I think Elias will have problems returning his serve.

Hanescu starts at 1.67 which is about right.  I expect the crowd to get involved in this one as they will know that Hanescu can react badly at times to abuse from spectators. Elias will fight hard but I am with Hanescu to get the win. I’m not ruling out 3 sets but if Elias is going to win a set he will probably need a tie break to do it.

 

 

 

 

 

    Trading Guide

1st May 2014

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On to the trading….

 

WTA Portugal, 11:00Kuznetsova had an excellent win over Torro Flor yesterday taking the third set 6-1. She reached the quarter finals last week and is playing well although she can often start slowly.

Bouchard had to fight hard for her win over Shvedova. She went a break behind in the opening set but managed to break back and then break again. It seemed to take her forever to serve out the set but she got there in the end. Shvedova didn’t have much left for the second set.

This one should be close. Kuznetsova had an excellent record in deciding sets last season but this season she has been poor. Bouchard has been a little better in third sets.

Bouchard has won 8 of her last 10 matches when  she had won the first set. She only won 4 of 10 if she lost the opening set.

Kuznetsova really needs to take the opening set here as she has won just once in her last 10 matches where she lost the first set. She won 9 of  the last 10 where she won that first set.

Highly likely then that the player to win the first set will go on to win the match.

Bouchard starts at 1.68 but I’m sure we will get an entry around 1.80 in the early games. I expect her to come through in 3 sets.

 

WTA Portugal, 13:00Vinci won her only previous clay court match with Vesnina. The Italian was by far the more impressive of the two players yesterday. Vinci won in 2 easy sets against Wickmayer while Vesnina threw away a lead in her opening set with Jovanovski and scraped through for the win in a third set tie break.

They haven’t met this season but played 3 times in 2013. Vinci won the last 2. In each match the eventual winner lost the opening set.

I am favouring Vinci for this one but will wait for an early higher entry price. She starts at 1.68 .

    Trading Guide

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