trading

23 Sep 2013 – A few quick thoughts

I didn’t intend to sleep until 7am but a tired mind is no good for trading. I am still trying to come round and catch up so I’ll just give a few brief thoughts on today’s matches.

 

Haase would be my pick to beat Gimeno Traver  but I want a higher price than his SP of 1.53. Traver is capable of troubling most players on his day.

They have played once before with Haase winning on the clay at Roland Garros in 2011.

Traver is in great form and has won 2 Challenger events this month on clay. Clay is an energy sapping surface though and he may start to run out of energy as this match progresses.

I’ll look to back Haase a break down early in the match.

 

Vinci leads the head to heads 4-1 over Safarova and on hard courts it’s 2-1 including a win at last month’s US Open. That went to 3 sets.

Stats for the last 3 months favour Vinci over all although Safarova’s stats from the service line are a little better.

Safarova won the title in Quebec a couple of weeks ago. In her first round match here she scraped through a tough match with Hercog in a third set tie break.

Vinci reached the quarter finals at the US Open and reached the same stage in Cincinnati. This is her first match since the US Open.

I can see this being another 3 setter with Safarova making the better start as Vinci gets a feel for the court. As long as Vinci isn’t too rusty I expect her to come through for the win with her consistency being the deciding factor.

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20 Sep 2013 – Jhang’s bubble to burst

King made another amazing comeback yesterday. She was 1-6, 2-5 down against Puig but managed to come back to win in a third set tie break. She had performed a similar task against Jovanovski in the previous round.

Today she is up against Zheng who beat Robson in 3 sets yesterday. They have played just once before which was last September in Tokyo. Zheng won in straight sets.

Zheng starts at 1.50 which feels a little low though the stats are all in her favour. I will look for a low lay on Zheng as I’m not sure I want to be having too much liability on either of them. I am slightly favouring Zheng for the win but it is likely to be in 3 sets.

Update: It was 3 sets but King did it again. King won 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.

 

Surely the Jhang bubble will burst this morning. Ranked 540 but in the quarter finals of a main tour event! Her last 2 wins were her only 2 wins in the main draw ever but she needed the mental collapse of Zakopalova and Jabeur to get them. She also had an MTO against Jabeur.

Arruabarrena Vecino will be able to hold her nerve much better and should be too consistent.

Update: Vecino won 6-0, 6-4.

 

Stats favour Zhang against Meusburger but the Austrian had a superb day from the service line yesterday against Cornet and I have a feeling she will take this one. She does lead the head to heads 3-1 though Zhang won their only recent meeting which was in March  last year.

Whoever wins it won’t be straight forward and they could have their first 3 set match. There may not be a huge number of breaks in this one so I may wait to lay the first set winner.

Update: Meusburger didn’t actually play THAT badly but she got battered!

Zhang won 6-1, 6-1. 

 

Gulbis was cruising in his last match and took the opening set but then seemed to switch off and went 0-5 in the second set and lost it 1-6. That woke him up and he broke early in the decider.

Bautista Agut started poorly against Donskoy but reduced his errors after the first set and finally came through a 3rd set tie break.

I have to favour Gulbis in this one. Agut beat him in their only previous match which was last year and also on an indoor hard court. However Gulbis is a different animal this season. I still won’t be backing him at 1.40 though.

Would be nice if I can back him a break down in the early part of the match.

Update: Gulbis won 6-1, 6-2.

 

Simon leads the head to heads 3-1 against Querrey. He has had  a month off through injury but had a decent first match back against De Shepper.

Querrey will prove to be a much stiffer test. The American is serving well but had a very easy second round match when Mathieu retired after just 2 games.

I’m not sure Simon is ready for Querrey. Simon is a good defender and if he can read the Querrey serve then he should out-rally him but match fitness could be an issue for him.

If Simon is struggling with returning serve early in the match I will be laying him.

Update: Simon was better than I had expected and he always looked in control although the score looks close..

Simon won 6-4, 7-6

 

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