trading

ATP Next Gen: De Minaur v Sinner

Alex De Minaur 1.45, Jannik Sinner 3.15

 

The Final

Due to start at 8 pm

Best of 5 sets. Each set is first to 4 games with a tie break at 3-3. No advantage so at 40-40 the next point wins. Tie breaks are first to 7 points without needing to be 2 points clear. 

This will be their first meeting.

Their overall win percentages are very even this season. Both players are strong indoors.

De Minaur will want to go one better than his 2nd place last year. In the 2018 final he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in 4 sets. He has lost a set in 3 of his 4 matches this week. He has held 87% of his service games. His return stats have been stronger in the tournament.

Alex De Minaur
Alex De Minaur – photo abc.net.au

Sinner  was fairly comfortable in his first 2 round robin matches. He then lost in 4 sets to Ugo Humbert which was a little surprising as Humbert had lost both his round robin matches. He has held 91% of his service games.

I have to go with Minaur to win but think Sinner will take at least 1 set. Both players have won 71% of points on serve this week.

Lay De Minaur around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove liability at 1.55. Lay the set 1 winner.

 

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ATP Next Gen Finals: Ymer v Sinner

Mikael Ymer 2.86, Jannik Sinner 1.53

 

 

The Next Gen Finals have a different format to Normal ATP/WTA tournaments.  What does this mean? Essentially it means they have taken the long established rules of the sport and pissed about with them to make it “more exciting”.  Think T20 in cricket or Tinder in dating.

The matches are best of 5 sets. Each set is the first to 4 games. There is a tiebreak at 3-3. The tie breaks are first to 7 points without the need to be 2 points clear.

They have also done away with Advantage. If the player get to 40-40 the next point wins the game.

Take a look at the ATP Tour site for details. 

 

As the sets are shorter the price reactions are a little bigger.


Round Robin Stage

Due to start at 8 pm. 

 

This will be their first meeting.

Overall results favour Ymer in the last 12 months. Both players have strong indoor results this season.

Sinner won an indoor Challenger title in February and reached the semi finals in an indoor Challenger last month. He also made the semi finals in Antwerp on the main tour in October. Sinner came back from losing the opening set to beat Tiafoe in 4 sets last night.

Ymer
Photo from TennisWorldUSA

Ymer won 2 indoor Challenger titles in September and October. He played well to beat a poor Ugo Humbert yesterday.  He was broken twice in 4 sets. He has had some excellent results in 2019 on all surfaces.

We have some value on Ymer. Lay Sinner around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.90. Lay the set 1 winner. I expect 4 or 5 sets.

 

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