Tennis Profits Suggested Trades Archive

19th July

Predictions:

WTA Gdynia

WTA Palermo

ATP Gstaad

ATP Umag

WTA Palermo, First round

Brancaccio v Cristian

Due to start around 3 pm

1st meeting.

Overall win % are stronger for Brancaccio. Much better results for her in 2021. Both have strong long term clay results. Better win % for Brancaccio. In the last year, Brancaccio lost both her main tour clay matches.

Most of Brancaccio’s recent wins were over really low ranked opponents. She may take a set but I have to favour Cristian. She has more experience of main tour matches. She reached the 3rd round in Prague in September 2020 but most of her wins were in ITF’s or qualifying rounds. 

Back Cristian around 2.20 and remove some or all liability around 1.60.

Update: Cristian had a nightmare of a first set and didn’t hold serve once. I backed her when she was broken but didn’t add the second 1/3 during set 1. Brancaccio was also struggling a little on serve and was broken twice in the set. In set 2, Cristian served first so I waited for her to hold before laying Bracaccio. Cristian Broke serve in the next game and I ​removed most of my liability.

Cristian was immediately broken back and then broke Bracaccio again. She went on to take the set. I greened up after set 2. 

Set 3 was a mess. Cristian was twice a break ahead but was broken. A third lat break gave her the chance to serve out the match which she did easily.

WTA Gdynia, First round

Radwanska v Kucova

Due to start around 4:30 pm

Head to head 1-1. Both matches were in 2007. Radwanska won on grass and Kucova won on a hard court.

Long term overall win % are better for Radwanska. Long term clay results are significantly better for Kucova. She won 30 of her last 50. Radwanska won 19 of 50.

Radwanska has not won a main draw WTA match in the last 12 months. She has only played 1 main draw WTA clay match in the last 3 seasons.  

Back Kucova above 1.95 and remove some or all liability at 1.50.

Update: This would have been a very easy trade if Kucova had been broken at the start. In reality, Radwanska was broken in the first game and Kucova’s serve was never troubled. A second break of serve gave Kucova the set. 

In set 2, Radwanska held her first service game but would not hold again in the match.

Kucova won 6-2, 6-1. NO TRADE

18th July

Predictions:

We have 6 finals today. Four of them will overlap!

ATP Newport (7:30 pm)

Anderson in 3 sets

ATP Hamburg (12:30 pm)

Carreno Busta in 3 sets

ATP Bastad (1 pm)

Ruud in 3 sets

WTA Budapest (4 pm)

Kalinina in 3 sets

WTA Lausanne (12:00)

Burel in 3 sets

WTA Prague (12:00)

Krejcikova

WTA Lausanne, Final

Zidansek v Burel

Due to start at 12:00

1st meeting.

Long term overall win % favour Burel. Long term clay win % favour Zidansek.

Burel has faced stronger opponents this week. She beat Garcia in 3 sets in the semis and Ferro in the q final.

Zidansek has been strong favourite in every round.

Stats for the tournament favour Burel on serve and Zidansek on return. This should be close. Zidansek has needed 3 sets in 2 of her matches, despite the market strongly favouring her. She has not faced anyone ranked below 184th. 

Value is on Burel. Lay Zidansek around 1.45 and remove some or all liability at 1.90. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Burel broke Zidansek’s serve in the first game. She broke again in the 3rd game of the set. Zidansek got one of the breaks back but Burel took the set. 

In set 2, Zidansek was broken in the first game. A player often relaxes when a set and a break ahead and this happened to Burel. She was immediately broken back and lost her serve again to trail 2-4. She broken back straight away and the set went to a tie break which Zidansek won. 

The disappointment of losing that second set was too much for Burel and she fell apart in set 3.

Zidansek won 4-6, 7-6, 6-1.

WTA Budapest, Final

Putintseva v Kalinina

Due to start at 4 pm

Putintseva 1-0 (May 2012, clay, 3 sets). Long term overall win % favour Kalinina. She won 39 of her last 50. She also has better clay results winning 40 of her last 50. This season she has won 31 of her 34 clay matches. Putintseva won 11 of 19.

Putintseva beat a grumpy Konjuh in straight sets in the 2nd round. She then struggled against Kozlova and won in 3 sets. A very late break gave her the match. IN the last round I expected her to lose against In form ITF player, Galfi. They went to a 3rd set but Galfi needed the trainer and wasn’t as competitive. 

Kalinina hasn’t lost a set this week. I thought Udvardy would give her a few more problems than she did in the q final but Kalinina won 6-4, 6-4. In the semi final she took the opening set from Collins in a tie break after Collins had fought back from being a double break behind. Collins retired when she went a break behind in set 2. 

Stats for the tournament slightly favour Putintseva. In the 3 matches where Putintseva took the 1st set, she was broken first in set 2 each time. I expect this to be close but favour Kalinina.

Back Kalinina around 2.10 and remove some or all liability around 1.60. Back her if she loses set 1.

Update: This was a streamed live trade. 

Poor start from  Kalinina and she went a double break behind. She got one of the breaks back but Putintseva took the set. In set 2, Kalinina was awful on serve and was broken in every service game to 15. 

Putintseva won 6-4, 6-0.

17th July

Predictions: 

ATP Newport

Both semi finals look like coin tosses. I wouldn’t touch them with a barge pole unless you wanted to try backing the servers with small stakes.

ATP Hamburg

Krajinovic in 3

Carreno Busta in 3

ATP Bastad

Coria in 3

Ruud in 2

WTA Prague

Martincova in 3

Krejcikova in 2

WTA Lausanne

Burel in 3

Zidansek in 3

WTA Budapest

Galfi in 3

Collins in 3

ATP Bastad, Semi Final

Hanfmann v Coria

Due to start at midday

Coria 3-0. Most recent Nov 2019, clay, 3 sets. All their matches were on clay. All were close matches.

Long term overall win % are better for Coria. Long term clay win % are strong for both players. Hanfmann has the lead when comparing results from their last 50 clay matches. 12 month clay results are even but Coria leads in 2021.

Coria has put his bad spell of form well behind him. He was underdog in the last 2 rounds and beat Cecchinato and Garin in 3 sets.

Hanfmann has not lost a set so far but has faced weaker opponents than those faced by Coria. He has only been broken twice this week.

Stats for the tournament are very even. Hanfmann has better service hold figures but as I said above has faced weak opponents. Lay Hanfmann around 1.60 and remove some or all liability at 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner. I favour Coria to win.

Update: Coria won in straight sets. Hanfmann started the match by losing the first 4 games so we never got close to the target price.

Coria won 6-2, 6-1.

WTA Budapest, Semi Final

Putintseva v Galfi

Due to start at 2:30 pm

1st meeting. Long term win % are strong for both but slightly favour Galfi. 12 month results favour Galfi. Clay results favour Galfi. She has played most of her matches on the ITF tour but looks like she is ready to step up to WTA level.

Galfi has been underdog in every round but has not lost a set. She was broken 4 times in the 1st round but that win settled her nerves and she was broken once in the 2nd round and just twice by Danilovic in the last round. 

Putintseva has lost just 1 set which was in the quarter final. She came through a rollercoaster of a match with Kozlova to win 7-5 in the 3rd set. She was underdog in the 2nd round against Konjuh but Konjuh had a poor day from the service line and Putintseva took the match in 2 sets. 

Stats for the tournament are pretty even. Good chance of 3 sets so we have some value on Galfi.

Lay Putintseva around 1.25 to 1.30 an remove some or all liability around 1.60. Lay the set 1 winner. Galfi has a great chance to win this. She is the home player and the crowd will give her a lot of support which could irritate Putintseva, especially if she goes behind.

Update: Putintseva broke serve in the first game of the match so the target price for the lay was reached.  She easily won the 1st set.

In set 2, Galfi took a 3-0 lead. Putintseva recovered to 3-3 but was broken again and Galfi took the set. IN the 3rd set Galfi had a medical time out and was not competitive in the deciding set.

Putintseva won 6-2, 3-6, 6-2.

16th July

Predictions:

WTA Prague

WTA Budapest

ATP Bastad

WTA Lausanne has been so messed up by delays that the player’s motivation to play 2 matches in a day could be low. 

I won’t be trading this afternoon. The next Live session will be a LIVE STREAMED trade on Sunday.

ATP Hamburg, Quarter Final

Basilashvili v Djere

Due to start at 11:30 am

Djere 3-2. Most recent April 2021, clay, Djere in 2 sets. They both won once in 2019. All their matches were on clay.

Overall win % favour Djere. His clay win %’s are also stronger.

Basilashvili has not played a match this week as he has a walkover in the last round. Basilashvili won the clay title in Munich in April but has had poor clay results since.

Djere has won both his matches this week in 2 sets.  He was broken once in each match. He has won 34 of his last 50 on clay. He reached the 3rd round at the French Open.

Fair chance of 3 sets. Back Djere around 2.20 to 2.30. Remove some or all liability around 1.70 to 1.75. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Djere got the first break of serve in the 3rd game of the match and added another break before the end of the set. We didn’t get my target price. He also took set 2 with a double break. 

Djere won 6-2, 6-2.

WTA Prague, Quarter Final

Siniakova v Krejcikova

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Krejcikova 1-0 (June 2020, clay, 2 sets). Overall win % are much better for Krejcikova. She also leads on hard courts.

Siniakova started slowly in the last round and needed 3 sets to beat Smitkova. She was broken 6 times and hit 13 d faults. In May she reached the semis in Parma on clay and also reached the 3rd round  of the French Open. She played really well in the grass season, reaching the final in Bad Homburg and the 3rd round at Wimbledon. 

Krejcikova has not lost a set though her match with Bonaventure was much closer than expected. She didn’t have an amazing match on serve and hit 8 d faults. She was broken 4 times.

Siniakova will need to cut down on her errors today but if she does she can make a match of this. Back Krejcikova around 2.10.  Remove some or all liability around 1.55.

Both players can start slowly. Let’s hope its Krejcikova today.

​Update: Krejcikova took the first break of serve but was immediately broken back. She broke again to give her the chance to serve out the set which she did after saving a bp. In the 2nd set Siniakova fell apart and didn’t win a game.

Krejcikova won 6-3, 6-0.

15th July

Predictions:

WTA Prague

WTA Budapest

WTA Lausanne  (updated)

ATP Hamburg

ATP Bastad

*** You will have noticed that I have not given predictions for ATP Newport this week. I find that tournament very random and am selective on the matches I trade from there. 

The LIVE STREAMING TRADE will be at 11:30 this morning.

Schmiedlova v Galfi in WTA Budapest. I think this could be a tricky one and will be closer than the market suggests. 

Update: This will appear in the description of the recording.



Pre match: Schmiedlova starts as 1.56 favourite but Galfi has had some great results this year on the ITF tour. I’m expecting a close match.
If Schmiedlova takes an early break lead I will lay her and I am looking to back her around 2.20 to 2.30.

In play.: Very low liquidity at the start with less than 5k matched. Money was being entered into the market after every point so it was going to be fine for a swing trade.

Set 1 – Both players started serving well but Schmiedlova was broken in her 2nd service game. The price didn’t hit 2.30 until Galfi also held serve. I backed Schmiedlova at 2.30. The next 2 service games were easy holds.

Serving at 3-2, Galfi faced a bp but held. Schmiedlova went 0-30 down in her next service game and I took the chance to lay Galfi around 1.60. Schmiedlova pulled back to 30-30 and 40-40 but was broken. I backed Galfi before the break at around 1.57 to remove some liability. Galfi easily served out the set.

Set 2 – Schmiedlova served first in set 2. I laid Galfi. I could have waited for her to have her service game but felt that she would perform better in this set. If she had been broken in that first game I would have had a 50% loss. She held to 0.

Galfi didn’t look as strong on serve in the first service game. She went 0-30 down and I was briefly in a green position.
Galfi recovered and held serve. Schmiedlova held easily again.

In Galfi’s next service game she went 0-30 down again but this time Schmiedlova had a break point. This time I took the opportunity to remove liability. Galfi held serve. Schmiedlova held to 30.

In the next Galfi service game, once again she went 0-30 down. Schmiedlova had a bp and I left a free bet on her. She broke serve. A hold from Schmiedlova would mean the set was almost hers. She was broken to 15. I hedged for a small profit.

I laid Galfi in her next service game and Schmiedlova had another bp. I remove most of the liability and had the green on Schmiedlova. Should couldn’t break. I hedged for a small profit.

I did try another lay on the Galfi serve but this time she held easily and I exited at 30-0 for a small red of about £3. Galfi broke serve in the next game. I laid her when she served for the match but she held easily. The final result was a £22 red.

WATCH THE VIDEO HERE>>>

WTA Budapest, Second round

Sasnovich v Udvardy

Due to start at 1 pm

1st meeting. Overall win % favour Udvardy. Her clay win % are also better. Udvardy has had some very strong results on clay in ITF’s this season. In the last round she beat Sherif in 2 sets. Sherif was poor and seemed to be limping towards the end of the match.

Sasnovich came through against Babos in the last round. Babos didn’t win a game and retired in set 2. Sasnovich has had limited clay success this season.

Some value on Udvardy as underdog. Lay Sasnovich around 1.40 and remove some or all liability around 1.80. Fair chance of 3 sets. Lay the set 1 winner if the 1st set loser has had break chances in the opening set.

ATP Hamburg, Second round

Delbonis v Ramos

Used to start at 2:30 pm

Delbonis 7-4. Most recent May 2021, clay, Delbonis in 2 sets. He won their last 3 matches on clay in 2 sets. All their matches were on clay.

Overall win % favour Delbonis. His clay win %’s are also stronger. He reached the 4th round at the French Open in May plus the semis in Belgrade2, q final in Rome as a qualifier, 3rd round in Madrid as a qualifier and q finals in Belgrade.

Ramos is a very capable clay player and Delbonis often makes hard work of his matches. He has been suffering with a leg problem since May. He had some successful weeks before the injury and won the title in Estoril in April as well as reaching the 3rd round in Barcelona. He reached the semi finals in Marbella and Buenos Aires and in February he reached the final in Cordoba.

We have a decent chance of this going to 3 sets. 

Back Delbonis around 2.20 to 2.30. Remove some or all liability around 1.60 to 1.65. Lay the set 1 winner.

14th July

Predictions:

WTA Prague

WTA Budapest

WTA Lausanne

ATP Hamburg

ATP Bastad

The first LIVE STREAMED TRADE will take place on Thursday. I will advise which match on Thursday morning.

There won’t be a live trade on Wednesday 14th but I will be doing a live session on Friday and perhaps a live streamed trade on Sunday.

ATP Bastad, Second round

Martinez Portero v Garin

Due to start at 11:30

Garin 1-0 (June 2021, grass, 4 sets). Overall win % are fairly even. Long term clay results are also even. Slight edge to Garin in 2021. 

Garin reached the 4th round at the French Open and qfinals in Madrid in May. His confidence is high and he also made the 4th round at Wimbledon. He withdrew from Geneva in May with a shoulder problem but as it was the week before the French Open, I think it was precautionary. He reached the 3rd round in Monte Carlo on clay in April.

Martinez is having a decent season. Reached the 3rd rounds at the Australian Open in Jan and at Wimbledon. He was unlucky ot draw Tsitsipas in the 2nd round at the French Open. He has made a couple of 2nd rounds in ATP clay tournaments. He will be competitive today 

Sets will be tight. Back Garin around 2.20 and remove some or all liability around 1.65. 

WTA Hungarian Grand prix, Budapest, Second round

Kozlova v Bogdan

Due to start at 1 pm

Bogdan 1-0 (June 2016, grass, 2 sets). Overall win % favour Bogdan. Long term clay win % are even at 29 wins from the last 50 matches. 

Bogdan has better 12 month clay results. She came through a tough match with Lepchenko in 2 sets in the last round. She reached the 3rd round at the French Open, although was helped by a walkover from Osaka in the 2nd round. She reached the quarter finals in Istanbul in April, beating Krejcikova in the 2nd round. 

Kozlova has had limited success on the main tour this season. She reached the 3rd round in Nottingham as a qualifier in June and the 2nd round in Hobart on hard courts as a qualifier in January. She has won 6 of her 13 clay matches in 2021. 

Back Bogdan around 2.10 and remove some or all liability around 1.60 to 1.65. 

Please read the notes at the bottom of this page for tips on using these suggested trades.

13th July

50+ matches today so plenty to keep us busy!

Predictions:

WTA Prague

WTA Budapest

ATP Hamburg

WTA Lausanne

ATP Bastad

Today’s LIVE TRADE SESSION  will be between 1:30 pm and 3:30 pm. There should be a good choice of matches then.

WTA Budapest, First round

Cocciaretto v Jani

Due to start at 10 am

1st meeting. Overall win % favour Cocciaretto. Long term clay results also favour her and she has been a little better in the last 12 months.

Cocciaretto’s last decent clay result was reaching the final of a Challenger in Prague in August 2020.

Jani has better clay results this season though mainly in ITF tournaments. She did make the q finals in WTA Belgrade in May as a qualifier.

As Cocciaretto has not been at her best in 2021, this could be close. Lay Cocciaretto around 1.35 and remove some or all liability at 1.70. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: We didn’t get my target price to lay. Jani broke serve in the 3rd game. Cocciaretto broke back for 4-4 but was immediately broken again. Jani served out the set though had to save 2 bp.

In set 2, Cocciaretto had 2 bp in the 4th game so if you laid the set winner there was the opportunity to remove liability. She didn’t break and was then broken twice to trail 2-5. She recovered to 5-5 with 2 breaks of serve but was broken again straight away. Jani had to save 2 bp while serving out the set.

WTA Budapest, First round

Sherif v Udvardy

Due to start at 11:30 am

1st meeting. Overall win % favour Udvardy. Clay results are pretty even. Both won 37 of their last 50 matches. Most of their best results were in ITF’s.

Sherif reached the q finals of WTA Bastad last week. She reached the final of an ITF in Montpellier in June.

Udvardy has had some superb results in ITF’s this season. She reached a final in April, won 2 titles in May, reached a final in June and the semis in Torino last week. She beat a lot of low ranked opponents but that will have done wonders for her confidence.

Very good chance of 3 sets. Some value on Udvardy. Lay Sheriff around 1.40 and remove some or all liability at 1.80.

Back Sherif around 2.20 to 2.30.

Lay the set 1 winner

Update: This was traded during the live session. The market seemed to be favouring Udvardy from the start. Sherif was broken in the 4th game. As the market was favouring Udvardy I had advised to wait for the break before backing Sherif. We got around 2.60. In the next game, Sherif led 15-40. With hindsight, I should have advised to remove liability at this point but I held on for the break back. Udvardy had been serving well until she was a break ahead and looked very nervous. Those 2 bp were saved and Sherif had a 3rd bp which was also saved. That was a big chance missed by me.

As the set went on, Sherif was holding easily but at 2-5 I advised to exit as scoreboard pressure may get to Sherif. We took around a 17% red.

We laid Udvardy but waited for a lower price in set 2. We laid around 1.37-1.39. Sherif was broken immediately. I advised to stay in for the next game as a player can often relax when a set and a break ahead. Udvardy held and we exited for around 36% loss. 

Sherif seemed to be limping a little and lost the set 1-6.

12th July

6 tournaments this week! 

Predictions:

WTA Prague

WTA Budapest

ATP Hamburg

The next LIVE TRADE will be on Tuesday 13th July. I am going to try picking 2 or 3 hours for a live session, rather than a specific match. (So, for example, the live session will be be between 1pm and 4 pm). That should mean that there is less hanging around for me and means you can plan your own time better. I’ll select a time that should have some decent matches going on and post on here in the morning. I’m also looking to do the first streamed trade this week. 

WTA Prague Open, First round

Stojanovic v Diatchenko

Due to start at 11:30

Head to head 2-2. Most recent Aug 2020, hard, Stojanovic in 2. She won their last 2 matches. The other win was indoors in 2019.

Long term overall win % are a little better for Diatchenko. 12 month results are even.

Diatchenko has played just 1 match on hard courts in the last year.

Stojanovic reached the 3rd round in Miami on hard courts as a qualifier in March this year.  

Back Stojanovic around 2.00 to 2.20. Remove some or all liability around 1.65.

Update: Stojanovic was broken in the 6th game. Stats for the set were quite even. Our 2.2 back on Stojanovic was carried over to set 2 as she was the favoured player. I laid Diatchenko at 1.56 when she won the set. She was broken in her first service game and I removed liability at 2.28,l leaving all green on Stojanovic.

At 0-5 in the set, Diatchenko had an MTO (medical time out) and Stojanovic’s price dropped to around 1.30. Stojanovic took the set 6-1.  I hedged evenly after set 2. Stojanovic took the 3rd set with a double break of serve.

Stojanovic won 6-7, 6-1, 6-3.

WTA Lausanne, First round

Tan v Ferro

Due to start around 4:30 pm

Ferro 3-0. Most recent July 2020, hard, Ferro in 2. She won their only clay match in 2016, 2 sets.

Overall win % are fairly even. Ferro’s clay results are significantly stronger. She won 39 of her last 50.

Tan plays mainly ITF tournaments. She has won 24 of her last 50 on clay. In April she reached the semi finals in Bogota as a qualifier. That was her only success on the main tour but does show that she can compete on clay.

Back Ferro above 1.95. She starts at 1.37. If she looks to be in control in the early games I would take 1.80 on her.  Remove liability around 1.40.

Update: The first set was closer than expected. Ferro broke first but was immediately broken back. She broke again a few games later but was again broken straight  back. Her price hit 1.98. A late break gave her the set. the match was suspended early in set 2 and completed the next day. 

Ferro won 7-5, 6-2.

11th July – Wimbledon, Day 13

Predictions:

ATP Wimbledon Final – Djokovic in 4 sets  (Djokovic won in 4)

WTA Hamburg Final – Ruse in 3 sets (Ruse won in 2 sets though Petkovic had a 3-0 lead in set 2!)

I have been thinking about the Live Chat Trades and I have some thoughts to share with you on this subject. It’s easier to do this with a video that I will record when I have finished updating this Home page. Please check back later this morning to view that video as I would like feedback via emails.

VIDEO

*** I should be in chat during both matches but can’t guarantee being there for full matches. 

WTA Hamburg, Final

Ruse v Petkovic

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting. Overall win % favour Ruse. She has won 35 of her last 50. Petkovic won 25 of 50. Long term clay results also favour Ruse. Her 12 month clay results are much stronger. Her clay results on the main tour are stronger though she plays a lot of ITF tournaments.

Petkovic has had injury issues for many months. She started to play better tennis in the grass season and that has continued to be the case this week. She beat 2nd seed Putintseva in 3 sets in the 2nd round. She was broken 5 times in 3 sets which isn’t excessive as underdog. In the semis she beat Niemeier in 3 sets. She had to work very hard for the win as her serve wasn’t great. She was broken 6 times and hit 11 double faults. Niemeier’s serve dropped a little in that match and she also hit 11 double faults.

Ruse has come through the qualifying rounds. She didn’t lose a set in her 1st 4 matches. In the q final she was big underdog against Collins and came through a roller coaster match in 3 sets. In the last round she was also underdog against Yastremska and was out played in set 1. It was hard to see a way back for her but she won the 2nd set 6-1!. She came through a very tight deciding set to take the match.

Stats for the tournament favour Ruse for everything except service holds. Petkovic leads that stat 69% v 58%. Decent chance of 3 sets. Some value on Ruse. The home crowd will be with Petkovic. I will be looking to lay Petkovic around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Ruse faced a bp in the 2nd game and Petkovic’s price hit 1.51. I was matched with lays at 1.52 and 1.54.  Ruse recovered and was not broken. She then broke the Petkovic serve in the next game. I hedged at 1.70 on the Ruse ladder for around 70% ROI. 

Petkovic immediately broke back. The set went to a tie break which Ruse took.

I wasn’t involved in the rest of the match but Petkovic took a 3-0, double break lead in set 2 before Ruse won 6 of the next 7 games.

Ruse won 7-6, 6-4.

ATP Wimbledon, Final

Djokovic v Berrettini

Due to start at 2 pm

Djokovic 2-0. Most recent May 2021, clay, 4 sets. He won indoors in 2019, 2 easy sets.

Both have excellent overall win %. Djokovic leads. He won 43 of his last 50. Berrettini won 39 of 50. Djokovic has a lot more grass experience and has won 45 of his last 50. Berrettini won 28 of his 35 matches on grass.

Djokovic has won this tile on multiple occasions including in 2019, 2018. Berrettini made the qfinal of the French Open in 2021 although Federer withdrew from their 4th round match. He reached the semis of the US Open in 2019, losing to Nadal in straight sets. This final will be a huge deal for him and he will be very nervous.

Berrettini has dropped 3 sets so far.  Hurkacz in the semi final and Aliassime in the q final both took a set. His serve has been a huge weapon. He will need that serve to be at its best today.

Djokovic lost the opening set against Wild Card Draper in the 1st round and has not lost a set since. He faced 11 breakpoints against Shapovalov in the semi final but was broken once at the start of the match.

Stats for the tournament are even on serve. Both have held 95% of service games. All other stats are quite even but favour Djokovic. If Berrettini can handle the nerves I think he can take a set. Djokovic has been here so many times. Lay Djokovic around 1.15 and remove liability at 1.30. Back Djokovic if he loses set 1.

Update: It was a nervous start from Berrettini and he was broken in the 4th game. Djokovic served for the set at 5-3 but was broken. Had you laid at 1.15 you would have been able to remove liability at 1.30 as advised. 

I backed Djokovic just before Berrettini took the tie break which was very close. I left a free bet on Djokovic when he won set 2.

Djokovic won 6-7, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3.

10th July – Wimbledon Day 12

Women’s Final Day!

Prediction: Barty in 3 sets. (Barty won in 3 sets)

WTA Hamburg Semi Final Predictions:

Yastremska in 3 sets (Ruse won in 3 sets. Yastremska had an MTO during the 2nd set)

Niemeier in 3 sets (Petkovic won in 3 tight sets)

WTA Hamburg, Semi Final

Yastremska v Ruse

Due to start at 11 am

Ruse 1-0 (March 2017, clay, 3 sets). Overall win % are better for Ruse. Long term clay results favour Yastremska. 12 month clay win % are even but Ruse played more matches.

Yastremska has not lost a set this week but in the last round she came under a lot of pressure from Errani. In the second set Yastremska looked pretty tired. She is lacking match fitness after so long away from the tour.

Ruse has come through the qualifying rounds. Two of her 3 main draw matches were very tight. In the 1st round she came back from a double break down in both sets. In the last round she took the first set from Collins, easily lost set 2 and took a rollercoaster 3rd set 7-5.

Yastremska will need to get this done in 2 sets. I think if it goes to 3 sets she may struggle for energy. Back her above 2.20. Remove liability around 1.65 . Back Yastremska if she loses set 2 and remove liability if she gets the first break of serve and also holds her own serve.

The first set is going to be vital for both players.

Update: Yastremska was broken in the first game of the match. The market was biased towards her and we didn’t get close to our entry price. She broke back immediately. Ruse would be broken another 2 times in the set.

I didn’t see any reason to lay Yastremska and left the match to do some gardening. That was a mistake as Ruse raised her level in set 2. Yastremska was broken 3 times and had a medical time out. Ruse took the set 6-1! That’s tennis for you. 

In the 3rd set both players held serve until Yastremska serve at 3-4. She was broken to 0 and Ruse served for the match but was broken easily. It looked like Yastremska was going to have the momentum but from 40-15 she was broken. 

Ruse won 2-6, 6-1. 6-4.

WTA Wimbledon, Final

Barty v Pliskova  ### LIVE CHAT ROOM TRADE ###

Due to start at 2 pm

Barty 5-2. Most recent Apr 2021, clay, Barty in 3. Plisk’s last win was at the US open in 2018. She won in 2 close sets. They met twice on grass. Plisk won in 2016, 2 tie breaks. Barty won in 2012, 3rd set tie break. Pliskova was the higher ranked player for the both grass matches. 

Overall win % are a lot better for Barty. Both have excellent long term grass results. Barty has won 40 of her last 50. Pliskova won 37 of 50.

Barty lost a set in the 1st round but hasn’t lost once since.

Pliskova has served extremely well in this tournament. She had not lost a set until the semi final. Really she should have won that first set with Sabalenka. She had 8 bp and took none of them. Sabalenka had 1 bp and took it.

Stats for the tournament all favour Barty except for service holds. Pliskova leads that stat 93% v 83%.

Pliskova has been in 3 slam semi finals before this tournament. She made the final once at the US Open 2016. She lost the final to Kerber in 3 sets. Barty has been in 2 semi finals before this tournament. She lost to Kenin at the Australian Open 2020 and went on the win the title at the French Open in 2019.

We have some value on Pliskova and this should go to 3 sets. Barty knows what it’s like to win a slam.

Lay Barty if she gets a very early break of serve and remove liability when Plisk breaks back.

Back Barty around 2.20 to 2.30 or if she loses set 1

Update: Barty started the match with a hold to 0. Pliskova’s nerves were clear to see and she was like a rabbit in the headlights. Barty took a 4-0 lead. After that, both players struggled on serve and the next 3 games were breaks. Pliskova then found her serve and held to 0. I felt it was worth laying Barty when she served for the set at 5-3 but she held to 0! We lost just a few ticks and the potential upside of the trade was much bigger.

Set 2 started in a similar way although Pliskova was serving better. When held to 15 it was worth a lay on Barty. Barty held to 0 and then broke Pliskova to 0! Pliskova broke back for 3-3. I was trying lays on Barty after Pliskova had held serve but there was little pressure on Barty’s serve. Pliskova was then broken and Barty served for the match.  She was very nervous and was broken easily. Some members laid Barty before that service game.

Pliskova took the tie break to level the match. In the 3rd set, Barty broke Pliskova’s first service game and that was the only break of the set.

Barty won 6-3, 6-7, 6-3.

9th July – Wimbledon Day 11

Men’s Semi Final day

Djokovic in 4 sets. (Djokovic won in 3, though went an early break behind in set 1.)

Berrettini in 5 sets. (Berrettini won in 4)

WTA Hamburg Predictions

WTA Hamburg, Quarter final

Collins v Ruse

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting.

Long term win % slightly favour Ruse. Their 12 month win % are even and Collins leads in 2021. Bear in mind that Ruse plays mainly ITF tournaments against weaker opponents. Clay win % are stronger for Collins. She won 35 of her last 50.

Collins made a really slow start to her last match but bounced back strongly in set 2. That wasn’t a huge surprise as she hasn’t played a lot of tennis recently. She reached the 3rd round at the French Open in May. She pulled out of WTA Nottingham in June with an abdominal injury which seemed to affect her at Wimbledon as she lost weakly in the 2nd round. She seems to be over that injury

Ruse has come through the qualifying rounds. In the 1st round she fought back from a double break behind in both sets with Teichmann. She had a comfortable win in the last round as strong favourite.

Back Collins above 2.00. Remove some or all liability around 1.60.

Update: Collins made another slow start and was broken in the 1st game of the match. When serving at 2-4, Collins saved 4 bp but held serve. In the next game she had a break point but couldn’t take it. Ruse took the set. 

In set 2, Collins got the early break but was immediately broken back. Ruse was broken again and failed to hold serve once in the set. 

Collins won the first break of set 3 but was broken back in the next game. Then Ruse went up by a break and was also broken straight back. Collins served at 4-5 and held serve but not before saving 5 match points. When Collins served at 5-6 she was broken easily.

Ruse won 6-4, 1-6, 7-5.

WTA Hamburg, Quarter final

Niemeier v Zidansek  ###  LIVE CHAT ROOM TRADE  ###

Due to start at 2:30 pm

1st meeting. Overall win % favour Niemeier. Clay win % are fairly even. Zidansek has more experience on the main tour. 

Zidansek reached the semis at the French Open in May. She beat Kr Pliskova in the last round in 3 sets.

Niemeier reached the semis in Strasbourg in May as a qualifier. She beat Garcia in 2 sets this week and Korpatsch in 3.  Her serve has looked shaky this week, especially in the 1st round.

Back Zidansek above 2.10 and remove some or all liability around 1.50.  This really should be a straight forward trade but tennis can surprise you!

Update: My comment at the end of the preview turned out to be correct. Zidansek has more clay experience at the top level. 

Zidansek’s performance was hard to explain unless she was sick or injured. She was broken in her first 2 service games. In that first set she won just 2 points against the Niemeier serve, and one of those was a double fault!

The market reacted as though she was injured and the price plummeted. We exited at 4-0. Often that would be an excellent entry point but the gulf between the players was huge. 

In set 2, Zidansek was broken in her second service game. In the next game, Niemeier had to save 4 bp but still held. Her service level had dropped a little. In her next service game she was broken and Zidan was level at 3-3. In line with her overall performance, she was immediately broken to 0.

Niemeier won 6-2, 6-4.  When you have experience matches like this one, it makes you respect the tennis markets.

8th July – Wimbledon Day 10

It’s women’s semi Final day!

Predictions:

Barty in 3 sets  (Barty won in 2, although Kerber served for the second set)

Pliskova in 3 sets (Pliskova won in 3)

Predictions for WTA Hamburg

WTA Wimbledon, Semi Final

Barty v Kerber

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Kerber 3-2. Most recent Dec 2018, indoor hard, Kerber in 2. All their other matches were on hard. Their last 4 matches (2 wins each) ended in 2 sets.

Overall win % are much better for Barty. Both have won 40 of their last 50 on grass. Stats for the tournament all slightly favour Barty.

Kerber is enjoying her tennis again after many months of not really wanting to play. She has dropped 2 sets against Sorribes Tormo and Sasnovich. In the 4th round Gauff had a poor match and Muchova was hindered by a leg problem in the last round. She won the title in Germany before Wimbledon so her confidence is high and that makes a massive difference in all sports.

Barty has not lost a set since the 1st round. This is her first time past the 4th round at Wimbledon. It is just her 3rd slam semi final. She won the French open title in 2019 and lost to Kenin in the Australian Open semis in 2020. She will feel the nerves today

3 sets wouldn’t surprise me at all. Back Barty above 2.00 with 1/3 stake. Add the 2nd 1/3 around 2.40. Remove or reduce liability around 1.60. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Barty made a fast start and went 3-0 up. She had faced 2  break points in her first service game but didn’t face another one until she was serving for the set. She held serve to take the set. 

We laid Barty after the set. Kerber had served well after being broken in set 1 and I was expecting a close match. Kerber took a 3-0 lead and we remove our liability. Kerber served for the set at 5-3 but was broken. The set went into a tie break. Barty took a 6-0 lead in the tie break and took it 7-3.

Barty won 6-3, 7-6.

WTA Wimbledon, Semi Final

Pliskova v Sabalenka    ### LIVE CHAT ROOM TRADE ###

Due to start at 3 pm

Sabalenka 2-0. Most recent Aug 2018, hard, 3 sets. She won on grass in 2018, 3rd set tie break.

Overall win % are much better for Sabalenka. Long term grass results favour Pliskova. They both have good grass results this year. Sabalenka has 2 more wins than Pliskova. Stats for the tournament favour Sabalenka for everything except service holds. Pliskova has served extremely well and held 93% of her service games. She has been broken 3 times in 5 matches.

Pliskova has arguably faced tougher opponents this week overall. She has not lost a set so far. Golubic and Samsonova have shown excellent for  this week and Samsonova won a title just before Wimbledon. Both seemed a little overwhelmed by the occasion in the q final and 4th round respectively but part of that was due to Pliskova’s high level. 

Sabalenka has lost sets to Boulter and Rybakina. I expected more from Jabeur in the q final but I think emotionally, Jabeur was drained from her wins in the previous two rounds. She had vomited at match point in her 3rd round match with Muguruza. 

Fair chance of 3 sets. Both players can play well in a tournament and then have a terrible match for no apparent reason. Some value on Pliskova. if she can keep playing as well and serving as well she has a chance. Lay Sabalenka around 1.30 to 1.35 and remove liability at 1.70. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: I wanted 1.35 to lay Sabalenka. The lowest price she reached was 1.39 in the early games. When Sabalenka served at 2-2 she faced 2 bp but held. In Sabalenka’s next service game she faced another 2 bp but held serve again. When we got to 4-4 I advised to wait for set 2 before entering as to enter late in the set can be risky in such a close set. 

Sabalenka serves at 5-5 and Pliskova had another 4 break chances and STILL couldn’t break. Not surprisingly, in the next game, Pliskova faced her first bp and was broken to lose the set. 

We laid Sabalenka. Pliskova had the only bp in the set in the 5th game of the set and held on to take the set. We had removed liability after the break and after the set I advised anyone who hadn’t already hedged to do so.

In set 3, Pliskova had the only bp of the set in the first game and broke Sabalenka. The remaining games saw the receiver get to 30 just once. 

Pliskova won 5-7, 6-4, 6-4.

7th July – Wimbledon Day 9

We have the Men’s Quarter Finals today and also the WTA tournament in Hamburg.

Here are the predictions for Hamburg  

Wimbledon men’s quarter final predictions:

Shapovalov in 4  (won in 5)

Djokovic in 3   (won in 3)

Berrettini in 5  (won in 4)

Federer in 4    (LOST in 3!)

ATP Wimbledon, Quarter final

Khachanov v Shapovalov

Due to start at 1 pm

Shapovalov 1-0 (Nov 2019, ind hard, 3 sets).

Overall win % favour Shapovalov. Long term grass win % are better for Khachanov.

Shapovalov’s grass game has really improved this year and he has won 8 of his 10 matches. He needed 5 sets to beat Kohlschreiber in the 1st round and had a walkover in the 2nd round. Since then he beat Murray, which was expected, and beat Bautista Agut in straight sets in the last round.

Khachanov beat Tiafoe who didn’t look to be 100% fit or perhaps was just fatigued after playing a lot of tennis recently. In the last round I expected 5 sets in his match with Korda. Their 5th set was bizarre. There were 13 breaks of serve in that set which Khachanov won 10-8. The first 3 sets had been settled by a single break and there were 3 breaks in set 4.

Back Shapovalov above 1.95 with 1/3 stake and add a second 1/3 around 2.30 to 2.40. Remove some or all liability around 1.50.

Back Shapovalov if he loses set 1.

Update: A very tight first set. There were no bp until the 6th game. Shapovalov saved 4 bp in that game but held. The only other bp in the set was on Khachanov’s serve at 4-4. Shapovalov won it and easily served out the set. 

We laid Shapovalov around 1.17. He switched off for a few games and Khachanov took at 4-0 lead. Shapovalov got one of the breaks back but Khachanov took the set.

In set 2 there was just 1 break of serve. That was a late break for Khachanov. He almost choked serving for the set but did hold for a 2 sets to 1 lead.

This was our chance to back Shapovalov. He easily took the 4th set 6-1.  Remove liability or hedge. Job done.

The 5th set was close. Shapovalov was holding easily. All 7 of the bp in the set were on Khachanov’s serve. Shapovalov finally converted one with Khachanov serving at 4-4 and then served out the match.

Shapovalov won 6-4, 3-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-4.

ATP Wimbledon, Quarter final

Berrettini v Aliassime  Live trade cancelled (Family emergency)

Due to start at 3 pm

Berrettini 1-0 (June 2019, grass, 2 close sets). Overall win % are better for Berrettini. Both have excellent win % on grass. 

Berrettini dropped a set in the 1st round but has not lost one since.

Aliassime lost a set to Ymer in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round Kyrgios retired at 1 set all. Aliassime beat Zverev in 5 sets in the last round.

Stats for the tournament are very even for everything except service holds. Berrettini leads that stat 97% to 83%. This could be the most competitive of the q finals. I favour Berrettini to win but don’t expect it to be in straight sets. We can try a lay around 1.25 and remove some or all liability at 1.50. Back Berrettini if he loses set 1. Then remove liability around 1.60.

Update: Berrettini took a double break lead in the first set. Aliassime won back one of the breaks but the set went to Berrettini. Aliassime broke serve first in set 2. Berrettini broke back 3 games later but another break for Aliassime gave him the chance to serve for the set. He held serve easily.

In set 3, a late break gave the set to Berrettini. In the 4th set Berrettini broke at the start. there would be no more break points in the set. 

Berrettini won 6-3, 5-7, 7-5, 6-3.

6th July – Wimbledon Day 8

Today’s predictions. Just the women’s quarter finals today.

Pliskova in 3

Jabeur in 3

Muchova in 3

Barty

Summary: That was a challenging day. I was expecting the first 3 quarter finals to be close. In the end, the favourites won in straight sets.. A big part of trading is keeping losses under control. The most important part of a trade is the entry. If we take a poor value entry price there is no magic strategy that gets you out with an acceptable red. We need to stay patient ad wait for our planned entry.

There was a question in the chat about the prices increments that I use for the entries. I will add this reply to the section on how to use the suggested trades at the bottom of this Home page.

A typical trade will be as follows. If I have a pre match favourite who I assess as being the stronger player, I wait for an entry price that will be reached when the player is either broken or faces a break point. At that price I back them with a third of my stake.

If the other player reaches a price around 20 to 30 ticks above where their price will be if they win the set, I back my player with another third of my stake.

As the other player gets close to winning the set, I assess whether or not my player has performed well enough for me to stick with them into set 2.

At any time in set 1, if I have 1 third of my stake in the market, I will remove liability or hedge at a price around 10 ticks above their start price. If I have 2 thirds of my stake in the market, I will remove liability or hedge at a price around 20 ticks above their start price.

If my players loses the set and I have decided to stay with them into set 2, I back them with the final third of my stake. If my players gets broken first in set 2 I exit the trade. if my player gets the first break of serve in set 2, I hedge or leave a free bet on my player.

WTA Wimbledon, quarter final

Pliskova v Golubic

Due to start at 1 pm

Golubic 1-0 (Apr 2016, indoor hard, 3 sets). 

Overall win % are better for Golubic. She played a mix of WTA and ITF tournaments. Long term grass win % favour Pliskova.

Plisk has not lost a set so far. She has been broken 3 times in 4 matches. Pliskova broke the winning run of Samsonova in the last round. Samsonova had won the title in the week before Wimbledon.. 

Golubic dropped a set in the 1st round against Kudermetova. Her 2nd round and 3rd round opponents had poor days on serve. Collins won 4 of 28 points on her 2nd serve. Brengle won just 41% of points on her won serve. Keys, in the last round,  was hampered by a foot problem.  

Some value on Golubic and I think there is a good chance of 3 sets. Back Pliskova above 2.10. Remove some or all liability at 1.60. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Pliskova was very strong in this match and did not reach my entry price. Golubic took her to deuce in the very first game but that was as near as she got to a break in the first set.

In set 2, Pliskova broke Golubic in the second game of the set and took another break to finish the set. NO TRADE.

Pliskova won 6-2, 6-2.

WTA Wimbledon, quarter final

Muchova (2.32) v Kerber (1.74)  ### LIVE CHAT ROOM TRADE###

Due to start at 2:30 pm

Kerber 2-0. Most recent Apr 2019, hard, 2 sets. Her other win was also on hard in 2019, 3 sets. 

Overall win % are better for Muchova. Long term grass results favour Kerber and she has a lot more grass experience. She won Wimbledon in 2018.

Muchova has lost 1 set this week which was to Giorgi in the 2nd round. She had a tough 2 sets win over Badosa in the last round.

Kerber won the title in Germany the week before Wimbledon. In this tournament she has dropped sets to Sorribes Tormo and Sasnovich. In the last round I expected her to lose against Gauff but Gauff was well below par. She barely won more than half her points on serve.

Stats for the tournament are VERY even. We have some value on Muchova as underdog and I favour her to win. Muchova has faced tougher opponents overall.

Lay Kerber around 1.45 and remove liability at 2.00. Fair chance of 3 sets. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Kerber broke the Muchova serve in the second game of the match and we got my entry price. Muchova took Kerber to deuce in her first 2 service games.

Muchova had her left thigh heavily bandaged and she seemed to be limping occasionally. Her movement was not good

After that Muchova was still holding fairly easily and Kerber had to save 2 bp when she served at 4-2.  I advised that the disappointment of missing the break chances made the possibility of Muchova being broken in the next game much higher. I advised that is she struggled in the next service game then we would exit the trade. We exited at 0-30. She did lose her service game.

I explained that I was being more cautious than normal due to the fact that Muchova’s movement was being affected by her leg problem. We left the trade alone after that.

In the second set, Muchova did actually get the first break of serve for a 2-1 lead but was immediately broken back and broken again.

Kerber won 6-2, 6-3. 

I had a loss of around 30% although only had a third of my stake in the market. 

5th July – Wimbledon Day 7 (technically)

Today’s 4th round predictions:

ATP top half of the draw

ATP bottom half of the draw

WTA top half of the draw

WTA bottom half of the draw

WTA Wimbledon, Fourth round

Keys (1.51) v Golubic (2.92) ###LIVE CHAT ROOM TRADE ### (Follows the Khachanov v Korda match)

Due to start at 1 pm

Golubic 2-1. Most recent Apr 2019, indoor hard, Golubic in 2 sets. Keys won on hard in 2017. Golubic’s other win was by walkover.

Overall win % favour Golubic. She has played a mix of WTA, ITF and Challenger events. Keys has a much stronger grass record. She won 36 of her last 50. Golubic won 24 of her 43 grass matches.

Golubic had a tight 3 sets win over Kudermetova in the 1st round but had easy wins in the next 2 rounds. Collins was terrible and won just 2 games. Brengle was expected to make a match of it in the last round but won 3 games.

Keys has not lost a set. She beat Mertens in the last round and Davis in the 2nd round. Davis has a decent grass record.

Back Keys above 2.00. Remove some or all liability around 1.40 to 1.50 . Back Keys if she loses set 1.

Update: Keys was broken in the very first game. That wasn’t enough to give us our entry price but we got that in the next game. Both players served well after that until Keys was broken again. Golubic led 5-2 and I advised placing the next 1/3 of our stake on Keys. From memory, around 2.60.

Keys broke the Golubic serve in the next game. I advised members that a safer option was to exit now. Keys was not performing as expected and Golubic was performing better than expected. I also said that I was going to stick with Keys into the second set as a break of serve for her would take us into profit. I also warned that if I was wrong, the red would be larger.

In fact, Keys held serve and broke again to get back to 5-5. The advice was to take the profit. Some of the braver traders waited for Keys to hold before hedging.

The set went into a tie break but not before Key’s had a medical time out (MTO) for a foot problem. Golubic easily took the tie break.

Golubic’s price wasn’t a good one to lay so an option was to wait for Keys to be broken for a low risk lay on Golubic. In fact, Keys broke in the very first game. I advised members to take the profit as I felt we had been a little lucky and shouldn’t be greedy.

Key’s foot problem was clearly bothering her. She was broken in her next 2 service games and had to save 3 bp in the next one.

Golubic won 7-6, 6-3.

WTA Wimbledon, Fourth round

Badosa v Muchova

Due to start at 2:30 pm

1st meeting.

Overall win % are a little better for Badosa. Long term grass win % are better for Muchova.

Muchova has lost just 1 set so far which was against Giorgi in the 2nd round. She had a tough 2 sets win over Pavlyuchenkova in the last round.

Badosa needed 3 sets in the 1st round against Bolsova and had to fight hard for her 3 sets win over Linette in the last round. She was 0-3 down in the 3rd set.

Stats for the tournament favour Muchova for everything except service holds.

I have to favour Muchova for this one but the sets will be close. Fair chance of 3 sets. Back Muchova around 2.10 to 2.30. Remove some or all liability around 1.50 to 1.60. Back Muchova if she loses set 1.

Update: Badosa served first and faced 2 bp in her first service game. She held and broke Muchova’s serve in the next game though needed 4 break chances. We got our entry price in the next game.

Both players served well after that and there were no break points in the next 6 games. When Badosa served for the set at 5-3, she was broken. We could remove liability after the break or wait for Muchova to hold serve, which she did. As the Live Trade Keys match was about to start, I advised hedging the position.

The set went to a tie break which looked like going the way of Badosa. She had a 5-2 lead. Badosa did have a set point on her own serve but it was Muchova who took the tie break.

The 2nd set was fairly close. Muchova broke for a 4-2 lead but was immediately broken back. A late break for Muchova gave her the match.

Muchova won 7-6, 6-4.

WTA Wimbledon, Fourth round

Gauff v Kerber

Due to start at 3:30 pm

1st meeting.

Overall win % favour Gauff. Both have excellent grass win % but Kerber has a lot more experience.

Kerber started really slowly in the last round. She was 4-0 down against Sasnovich. The rain delay probably helped her refocus. Kerber has needed 3 sets in the last 2 matches. Her title win in Germany before this tournament may have affected her energy levels. She is 33.

Gauff has not lost a set so far. Her confidence is sky high right now. Her only previous appearance at Wimbledon was in 2019 when she reached the 4th round as a qualifier. She loves the atmosphere and crowds at Wimbledon and they will be supporting her.

Lay Kerber around 1.65 and remove some or all of your liability at 2.30. Back Gauff if she loses set 1.

Update: Both players were struggling on serve at the start of the match and the first 5 games were breaks of serve. Kerber finally held serve and we could lay her at 1.60. When she took the set we laid again. My advice was to exit the trade if Gauff was broken first in set 2. Her performance was not even close to what I had expected. She was broken in the 3rd game of the set and we exited. That proved to be the only break in the set.

Kerber won 6-4, 6-4.

We took a red on this one though it showed the importance of a good entry point as it kept the loss at an acceptable level.

3rd July – Wimbledon Day 6

Today’s predictions:

WTA Wimbledon

ATP Wimbledon

We have some cracking matches today!

WTA Wimbledon, Third round

Linette v Badosa

Due to start at 11 am

1st meeting.

Overall win % are much stronger for Badosa. Linette has a little more grass experience but Badosa has the better win %. 

Badosa has been broken twice in each round. She needed 3 sets to beat Bolsova in round 1. Putintseva was beaten fairly comfortably in the last round.

Linette has been underdog in both rounds. Anisimova was beaten in 3 sets and Svitolina in 2. She served extremely well in that match and faced just 2 break points. She was broken once.

Some value on Linette and we have a fair chance of this going to 3 sets. Stats for the week favour Linette for everything except service holds and she has faced stronger opponents. Slight edge to Linette to win.

Lay Badosa around 1.45 to 1.50 and remove some or all liability at 2.00. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Linette’s serve was broken in the first game and we had our entry price. Linette had 2 break points in the next game but Badosa held. Linette held her next service game and then it started raining. 

After a longish delay, they resumed and both were serving well. Badosa served for the set at 5-4 and was broken to 0. As often happens, when a WTA player is broken when serving at 5-4, Badosa lost the set.

The lay of the set 1 winner worked well as Badosa raced into a 4-0 lead and took the set 6-2. 

In set 3, Linette took a 3-0 lead but Badosa fought back to 4-4. Linette was broken in the next game and Badosa served out the match.

Badosa won 5-7, 6-2, 6-4.

WTA Wimbledon, Third round

Sevastova (2.74) v Krejcikova (1.73)  ###LIVE CHAT ROOM TRADE###

Due to start at 1 pm

1st meeting.

Overall win % are better for Krejcikova. Sevastova has a lot more grass experience and a better win %.

Krejcikova is a former Wimbledon doubles champ so does know her way around a grass court. Krejcikova has not lost a set so far.

Sevastova started slowly against Kostyuk but recovered well. She was broken 5 times in that match. Last week she reached the QF in Eastbourne as a qualifier, though did lose in the qualifying rounds and was given a Lucky Loser place in the main draw.

Fair chance of 3 sets but I favour Krejcikova. She will play the big points better than Sevastova. If Sevastova serves REALLY well this will be a long match.

Back Krejcikova around 2.30, then remove some or all liability around 1.60. Back Krejcikova if she loses set 1.

Update: This one was fun! Krejcikova made a slow start, was broken and we had our entry price after 1 point of the next game. Krejcikova held serve but not easily. I advised a top up lay of Sevastova at 1.60 but the price didn’t get there. Some laid at 1.63. Krejcikova then broke Sevastova’s serve. 

I advised to remove some liability at this point or to wait for Krejcikova to hold. During her service game, Krejcikova spoke to the umpire and asked for the trainer. The price immediately reacted and her price went up. She held serve and we had removed our liability.

Krejcikova had her blood pressure checked and was given pain killers. The market reacted as though Krejcikova was going to quit. I advised people not to trade when a player is injured as even experienced traders can get into trouble in these situations.

Krejcikova was broken again. 

This made it a good teaching situation. I advised against getting involved but as Sevastova’s price was around 1.40, a lay could have been a good option. If Krejcikova seemed to be ok, the market would quickly recover. We needed to exit before the end of the set in case she quit after the set. If she quit before the end of the set, then bets would be void.

Sevastova served for the set at 5-4 but was broken. Krejcikova was broken again and yet another break took them into a tie break. Krejcikova easily won the tie break.

Sevastova took the second set with a single break and there was just 1 break in the deciding set.

Krejcikova won 7-6, 3-6, 7-5.

2nd July – Wimbledon Day 5

Firstly, here are the predictions for today’s matches:

ATP Wimbledon

WTA Wimbledon

WTA Wimbledon, Third round ###CHAT ROOM TRADE###

Rogers v Rybakina

Due to start at 1 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2021, grass, Rybakina in 3. Rogers won on hard in 2020, 2 sets.

Overall win % are very even. Grass results are significantly stronger for Rybakina. She won 13 of her 17 matches.

Rogers needed 3 sets against Stosur but then beat Sakkari in a rain delayed match in the last round. You never know how players will react to rain delays and Sakkari didn’t handle it well.

Rybakina didn’t face a break point against Mladenovic and was broken once by Liu in the last round.

Back Rybakina around 2.00 to 2.20 with 1/3 stake and add another 1/3 around 2.50. Remove some or all liability around 1.50.

If Rybakina loses set 1, our entries mean that if she gets the first break in set 2, we have the option to take the small profit.

Update: Rybakina served first and faced 2 bp but saved them and held. A break would have been perfect as she went on to take a 5-0 lead and took the set 6-1. A single break in the second set gave her the match 6-1, 6-4.

I abandoned that match mid way through the first set as Rybakina was a very strong favourite for me.

We switched to the Jabeur v Muguruza match. Muguruza started around 1.60. I expected a close match and I gave Jabeur a good chance of winning. We waited for Muguruza’s price to drop to around 1.40, which it quickly did, and laid her. Jabeur’s serve was broken. Jabeur missed a lot of break chance but eventually broke Muguruza’s serve and we got our exit price of 1.80. the price went higher but they were still on serve and I advised to hedge the trade evenly.

That was a good move as Muguruza eventually took the set. We then had a choice to take the profit and move on to another match, or we could lay Muguruza with the profit to keep it risk free. Jabeur eventually won a late break of serve to take the set and took a 5-1 lead in set 3. She served out the match, but not before vomiting on match point!

Jabeur won 5-7, 6-3, 6-2.

WTA Wimbledon, Third round

Mertens v Keys

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Keys 2-0. Most recent Jan 2019, hard, 2 sets. She also won on hard in 2017, 2 sets.

Overall long term win % are strong for both. Slight edge to Mertens with 36 wins from her last 50. Keys won 32 of 50. Keys has a much better grass record with 35 wins from 49 matches. Mertens won 26 of 48.

Mertens was broken once in each of her matches so far. Keys didn’t face a break point in the 1st round and was broken once in round 2.

Very good chance of 3 sets. Mertens’ overall form has dipped a little this season and Keys’ form is improving after her neck injury. I favour Keys to win. Lay Mertens around 1.60 and remove some or all liability at 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Very tight first set with just 1 break point in the first 11 games. That was on the Keys serve and I doubt it reached my target price to lay Mertens. Keys was not broken and a late break of serve gave her the set.

Set two was very different. Mertens broke serve in the very first game so there was the chance to take a profit from laying the set 1 winner. However she was broken in her first 3 service games in that set and, while she managed to recover one of the breaks, that was enough to give Keys the match.

​Keys won 7-5, 6-3.



1st July – Wimbledon Day 4

Slim pickings in today’s ATP matches! There will no doubt be opportunities in play but pre match, nothing is jumping out at me for a suggested trade for new traders.

The WTA is much more interesting! Some matches after 2:30 look promising. I will finish researching the matches and will have some trades on here by 1 pm.

EDIT: A few better matches in the WTA but it’s a day for waiting for favourites to go behind before backing them. the better matches could end up overlapping which is far from ideal.

Something you might find useful is to know how I expect each match to go. I post these most days on Twitter but haven’t had time in the last few days. Trades beneath the images… 👇

WTA Wimbledon, Second round

Svitolina v Linette

Due to start at 1:00 pm

Svitolina 2-0. Most recent Sep 2020, clay, 2 sets. Both matches were on clay.

Overall win % and grass win % are better for Svitolina. She has only won 50% of her grass matches but reached the semis at Wimb 2019 and made the 4th round in 2017.

Linette reached the 3rd round at Wimb 2019 but that was a rare good result on the main tour on grass.

We need a slow start from her. In the last round she was broken in her first service game and bounced back immediately to run away with the match. Back her above 1.90.

Update: Svitolina broke serve in the first game and it looked like another one sided match. However, Linette broke back and then started serving like John Isner. She then went a break of serve ahead and we got our entry price.

Svitolina was not able to put pressure on serve and lost the set. She was serving well herself in set 2 and we stuck with her but when It looked like it wasn’t her day I advised that it was the safest option to either exit the trade or to reduce liability.

As she was serving well there was a long period of the set where a small loss could be taken. Towards the end of the set she had a rare break point but didn’t take it and she was broken herself in the next game.

Taking a decent value entry limited the loss.

Linette won 6-3, 6-4.

WTA Wimbledon, Second round

Kasatkina (2.5) v Ostapenko (1.63) #### CHAT ROOM TRADE #####

Due to start around 2:30 pm

Ostapenko 3-2. Most recent June 2021, grass, Ostapenko in 3. She won their only grass meeting in 2016, 3 sets.

Overall win % are a little better for Kasatkina. She won 36 of her last 50. Ostapenko won 31 of 50. On grass, Ostapenko has the better long term win %. They are fairly even in 2021 with Ostapenko having just 1 more win than Kasatkina.

Ostapenko won the title in Eastbourne last week beating Kontaveit in the final. This week she had a very easy win over Fernandez, losing just 3 games.

Kasatkina reached the final in Birmingham 2 weeks ago and the qf in Eastbourne (losing to Ostapenko). She was very strong favourite in her 1st round match with Tig who has an awful 1-7 win / loss record on grass. Kasatkina needed 3 sets to get the win. To be fair, she was only broken once in 3 sets.

I favour Ostapenko to win this one. Back her around 2.10 to 2.30. Remove some or all liability around 1.45 to 1.55. Lay the set 1 winner ( especially if Kasatkina takes set 1).

Update: This was eventful!

When they met last week, Ostapenko made a really slow start and I was hoping for the same again. That wasn’t to be and Ostapenko took a 3-0 lead and it looked like being 4-0. It wasn’t 4-0 but Kasatkina was broken again in her next service game and the set ended 6-1. I was expecting 3 sets in my pre match assessment but as Kasatkina had won just 6 points on serve in that set, I advised against a lay. However, when Kasatkina easily held serve, some in the chat laid Ostapenko. Kasatkina got the break of serve in the next game but was immediately broken back and then broken again.

I temporarily abandoned the match and moved over to lay Thompson against Nishikori. Nishikori took the set, which was a nice bones.

Meanwhile, Kasatkina had broken back and levelled the match at 1 set all. I looked at Ostapenko’s stats for the second set and her serve stats had dropped dramatically. She was still favourite at the start of set 3 and was serving first. I advised a small back of Kasatkina who immediately broke Ostapenko’s serve. A small back of Ostapenko was then advised, ideally with the profit from the last trade. We did this for the first 4 games of the set and all of them were easy breaks of serve. I advised to leave the match alone as the prices were going to go nuts as the set went on.

In fact, the first 6 games of the set were breaks of serve. 11 of the 14 games in the set were breaks! Kasatkina twice served for the match and was broken each time. Some members laid her when serving for the match. the price was a little high at around 1.40 but they used existing profit to keep it risk free.

Ostapenko won 6-1, 3-6, 8-6.

WTA Wimbledon, Second round

Juvan v Burel

Due to start around 3:00 pm

Burel 1-0 (Sep 2020, clay, 2 sets). Overall win % are better for Burel. This is her 1st grass tournament. She has come through the qual rounds and beat Perez in the main draw in 2 sets.

Juvan made the 2nd round at Wimb 2019 as qualifier losing to Serena in 3 sets. Doesn’t have a lot of grass experience. Good win over Bencic in 2 sets in the last round.

Good chance of 3 sets but I am going with Juvan to win. Lay Burel around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.30. Back Juvan if she loses set 1.

Update: Juvan broke serve first in the match and also broke serve in the first game of set 2 so, despite the sets being close, we never got close to our entry price. NO TRADE.

Juvan won 6-3, 6-4

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June 30th – Wimbledon Day 3

Normally by day 3 the first round matches have all been finished. Rain delays can really wreck a tournament. We have 73 matches today, plus the ones that started yesterday and weren’t completed.

I’ll try to be a little less ambitious with entry price on today’s suggested trades

WTA Wimbledon, Second round

Samsonova (1.89) v Pegula (2.08) ####CHAT ROOM TRADE #####

Due to start 4:40

Peg 1-0 (Aug 2020, hard, 3 sets).

Overall win % are a little better for Peg. Grass results favour Samson. She won 13 of her 16 grass matches and won the title in Berlin 2 weeks ago as a qualifier. Her serve has been excellent. Peg had a comfortable win over Garcia in the last round. She didn’t face a bp. Samson faced 2 bp against Kanepi and was broken once.

Back Samson around 2.30 or if she loses set 1. Chance of 3 sets

Update: For a few games we were getting close to our entry price of 2.30 but missed it. The market started to feel biased towards Pegula and we were soon getting our entry price before Samsonova’s serve. I don’t know if there was some news of, perhaps an injury to Samsonova but the market loved Pegula. Without a break of serve we could get matches around 2.48 when Samsonova was taken to Deuce in game 6. In the very next game, which was 19 points long, Samsonova wasted 2 break points but took the third.

We were able to remove some of our liability after the break. Some, including me, removed all liability to leave a free bet. Samsonova had to save 2 break points but held for a 5-3 lead. She would go on to win the set.

I had to leave at this point to collect my wife from work. Pegula took the second set and Samsonova won the match 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.

WTA Wimbledon, First round

Govortsova (3.15) v Vandeweghe (1.38) (Carried over from yesterday) ####CHAT ROOM TRADE #####

Due to start at 2:30

Govortsova 1-0 (May 2011, clay, 3rd set tie break ).

Overall win % are fairly even. Long term grass results are stronger for Vandeweghe. She has an excellent grass record and has won 35 of her last 50 grass matches. She has had some time away from the tour with injury but seems to be back near her best. She reached the semis in Birmingham as a qualifer2 weeks ago.

Back Vandeweghe around 2.10 and remove liability or hedge if she then hits 1.30.

Update: Govortsova was broken in her first service game. She did break back 3 games later but we didn’t get near to our entry price. Vandeweghe took the set with a late break of serve.

In set 2 we tried some low priced, speculative lays. Even though Govortsova’s 2nd serve was poor, She was hitting a high percentage of first serves. This gave us a small loss.

Vandeweghe won 6-4, 6-2.

ATP Wimbledon, First round

Nishikori (1.50) v Popyrin (2.94)

Due to start at 11:00

This is their first meeting. Overall win % are very even.

Nishikori has significantly better grass results, winning 33 of his last 50. Reached the qf at Wimbledon 2019. His form in 2021 is not his best but he is improving.

Popyrin has won 7 of his 13 grass matches and won 1 of 4 in 2021. He reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon 2019 as a qualifier.

I’d expect Nishikori to win this in 3 or 4 sets. Back him above 1.90. remove liability around 1.30 or when he wins set 1.

Update: Nishikori broke serve in the very first game of the match. That break was enough to win the set. He won in straight sets and we didn’t get close to our entry price. NO TRADE.

Nishikori won 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.

ATP Wimbledon, First round

Thompson (2.62) v Ruud (1.60)

Due to start at 11:00

Ruud 2-1. Most recent Feb 2021, hard, Thompson retired. Never met on grass.

Overall win % are much stronger for Ruud.

Thompson has more grass experience. He has won 50% of his grass matches. He reached the qf in Mallorca last week after struggling in the first round against clay courter, Andujar. He has lost all 4 of his previous matches at Wimbledon.

Ruud is finding his grass game and also made the qf in Mallorca last week. Thomp may take a set if he serves well.

Back Ruud around 1.95 and remove liability around 1.30 or when he takes the set.

Update: Tough match. Our target entry price was hit by a price spike when Ruud faced a break point. That was the only break point of the set and Ruud saved it. When it looked like we were headed for a tie break, I posted in the chat that I recommended removing liability at 6-6. They did get to a tie break. Ruud was a mini break up at 5-4 but lost the tie break. He was immediately broken in set 2 but recovered to take it to another tie break which he also lost.

Ruud bounced back well to take the next 2 sets with a double break in each. The lowest price he was matched at was 1.25. Thompson easily won the 5th set.

Thompson won 7-6, 7-6, 2-6, 2-6, 6-2.

ATP Wimbledon, Second round

Tiafoe (1.73) v Pospisil (2.34)

Due to start at 17:00

Pospisil 1-0 (Feb 2017, indoor hard, 2 sets). Overall win % are fairly even. Tiafoe has a slight lead in the last 12 months. Grass results favour Tiafoe and he has been stronger this season. Won a Challenger title 3 weeks ago. Beat Tsitsipas in the last round with some inspired play.

Pospisil beat clay courter Carballes Baena in the last round. Reached the qf in Eastbourne last week though was perhaps helped by Davidovich Fokina’s retirement in the 2nd round.

Sets will be tight but if Tiafoe keeps the level of play from the last round he will come through.

Back him around 2.20 to 2.30. Remove your liability if he then drops to 1.50. Lay the set 1 winner.

June 29th – Wimbledon Day 2

The chat has been hectic over the first few days. As it’s new to everyone I felt I had to be in there more than I normally would be to host it. That has, understandably meant a lot of questions flying around. A few people have got the knickers in a twist about how it was difficult to see the trades and how it was unorganised.

Remember why there was a Founders rate? Great!

So I would ask that questions go to my email address and that during matches, can we keep any big discussions to a minimum. I will limit my time in the chat to the matches that I have indicated I will trade on this home page.

I can also arrange Q and A sessions so you can fire questions but we will avoid times when matches are on.

Right, here we go!

WTA Wimbledon, first round  ####CHATROOM TRADE  1PM #### (After Zhang v Hoang)

Pegula v Garcia

Pegula 1-0 (June 2012, clay, 3 sets).

Overall win % are stronger for Pegula. Garcia has shown improved form recently on clay after months of bad results but her confidence is still fragile. On grass in her recent matches, as soon as things started to go wrong she has been clueless as to how to change things. Her long term grass results are much better than Pegula’s. She won 32 of her last 50. This season she has won 1 of 3. 

Pegula has won 3 of 5 on grass this year. Before this season she has had very limited grass success. She reached the quarter finals in Berlin.

I have to favour Pegula for the win but we need a better price before backing. She starts around1.40. Back Pegula around 1.95 to 2.20. Remove some liability if we get our entry price and she then drops to 1.40.

Update: We needed a break of serve for our entry price on Pegula. Unfortunately it was her who took the first break of serve. We tried a couple of speculative lays as Garcia was competitive but was always falling short. 

In the end I said it wasn’t worth laying Pegula after she took the set which proved to be the right decision. 

Small loss but hopefully people got something from my explaining my thought process of not just what I did but also what I didn’t do.

Pegula won 6-3, 6-1.

ATP Wimbledon, First round

Evans (1.46) v Lopez (3.10)

Lopez 1-0 (Jan 2016, hard, straight sets). Long term overall win % favour Evans. Long term grass win % are better for Lopez but there isn’t much in it.

Evans reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon 2019, 2016. In 2021 he reached the qf in Queens Club and the Nottingham Challenger.

Lopez has a better record at Queens Club than he does at Wimbledon. He won the title in Queens 2019 but lost in the 2nd round of Wimbledon. He hasn’t been past the 2nd round since 2016. Last week he reached the qf in Mallorca.

This can be 4 or 5 sets. Some value on Lopez but I give Evans the edge in front of a home crowd. Lay Evans around 1.25 to 1.30 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Evans above 2.20. Lay the set 1 winner.

Suitable Strategies: Lay set One Winner, Lay the Leader

Update: The first set was tight and ended up in a tie break which Evans took. We didn’t get the entry price on him. IN the second set Lopez was broken twice towards the end of the set. The third set was also tight and looked to be going to a tie break but Lopez lost his serve  when serving at 5-6. He had wasted 2 bp in the 7th game. Poor match from Lopez but Evans was very solid.

Evans won 7-6, 6-2, 7-5.

WTA Wimbledon, First round

Govortsova (3.15)  v Vandeweghe (1.38)

Govortsova 1-0 (May 2011, clay, 3rd set tie break ).

Overall win % are fairly even. Long term grass results are stronger for Vandeweghe. She has an excellent grass record and has won 35 of her last 50 grass matches. She has had some time away from the tour with injury but seems to be back near her best. She reached the semis in Birmingham as a qualifer2 weeks ago.

Back Vandeweghe around 2.10 and remove liability or hedge if she then hits 1.30.

This match is carried over to Wednesday.

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Wimbledon starts on Monday the 28th.

There are some differences to “normal” tournaments. The men play the best of 5 sets. The women still play the best of 3. There is also a change to the deciding sets. So, a third set for the women and a fifth set for the men will not have a tie break at 6-6. They will play until one player has a 2 game lead or until the score reaches 12-12.

At 12-12, they will play a tie break to 7 points.

Are there any differences to trading a best of 5 match? The price moves for winning the first set will be a little less than normal. If they get to 1 set each, then we really just have a best of 3 sets match from that point. 

Watch for players taking a 2 sets lead. They will often relax and allow their opponent more of a chance to take set 3.  It isn’t unusual for a strong pre match favourite to take the first 2 sets and lose the third. Then they re-focus and run away with set 4. 

If you have not traded a grand slam before then you will probably feel overwhelmed by the number of matches that are on at the same time, especially in the first round. Once you have picked a match to trade, stick with it until your trade is done. You don’t have to trade full matches but trade one at a time.

Good luck!

Monday 28th

The weather forecast isn’t great for today and there will be rain delays. Hopefully not too many as rain delays can really mess up a tournament.

WTA Wimbledon, first round

Pegula v Garcia

Pegula 1-0 (June 2012, clay, 3 sets).

Overall win % are stronger for Pegula. Garcia has shown improved form recently on clay after months of bad results but her confidence is still fragile. On grass in her recent matches, as soon as things started to go wrong she has been clueless as to how to change things. Her long term grass results are much better than Pegula’s. She won 32 of her last 50. This season she has won 1 of 3. 

Pegula has won 3 of 5 on grass this year. Before this season she has had very limited grass success. She reached the quarter finals in Berlin.

I have to favour Pegula for the win but we need a better price before backing. She starts around1.40. Back Pegula around 1.95 to 2.20. Remove some liability if we get our entry price and she then drops to 1.40.

A few of the matches that would be good for a chat trade are due to start at the same time!  I’ll see what the weather is like at 11 am. It may be that I put several matches up. A couple of courts have a roof so there will be play today, regardless of the weather conditions.

Update: Due to the rain delays, this match has been carried over to Tuesday.

ATP Wimbledon

Murray v Basilashvili

This will be their first meeting. 

Murray beat Paire on grass 2 weeks ago. He was then fairly comfortably beaten by Berrettini in the next round.

Basilashvili can be great one day and terrible the next but 2 weeks ago he reached the semis in Halle as a qualifier. He lost in 3 sets to Rublev.

This won’t be an easy match for Murray and he starts as slight market underdog. He will need his serve to be strong. I think because it’s Wimbledon, Murray will find a little extra motivation today. Back Him around 2.40 or if he loses set 1. Could easily go to 5 sets.

Update: Murray took the opening set with a late break of serve. His price hit 2.20. There were small amounts matched above that price and pennies matches at 2.30. Anyone waiting  for 2.40 ( price advised was around 2.40) missed out. Murray also took the 2nd set and was 5-0 up in the third set. He lost the next 7 games to lose the set. He took a tight 4th set.

Murray won 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3.

I’m not sure what the forecast is for Tuesday but I’ll post multiple matches so you should be able to get involved in something. 

Saturday 26th June

There are just 4 main tour matches today. The 2 ATP finals are on at the same time and the 2 WTA finals are on at the same time. I have 2 matches for you today, but will only be in chat for the WTA match. I always spend the weekend before a slam researching the 128 first round matches.

ATP Eastbourne Final

Sonego v De Minaur

De Minaur 1-0 (Nov 2020, ind hard, 2 sets).

Long term overall win % are pretty even. Results this season are also even. De Minaur has a lot more grass experience and a better win % on grass. He won 35 of his last 50. He has better results this season on grass. Stats for the tournament are very even. If anything, they favour Sonego.

Both have served extremely well this week. Sonego has been broken once in each round. De Minaur was broken once in each of the first 2 rounds and twice in the last round.

Sonego has not had much success on grass but did win the title in Antalya in 2019. De Minaur can do things the hard way sometimes. Even in the semi final he served for the match at 5-4 in the 2nd set but was broken to 15. He won the set in a tie break.

Lay De Minaur around 1.35 and remove liability at 1.70. Back De Minaur if he loses set 1.

Suitable Strategies: Lay Set 1 Winner.

Update: I didn’t trade this one. It was as if the players had read this post. Our lay price on De Minaur was easily reached as he broke serve in the 3rd game. The price will have dropped below 1.25. Sonego responded with an Immediate break back and went on to take the set 6-4. Time to back De Minaur.

Sonego was broken in the very first game of set 2. That was the only break of the set. The deciding set saw NO break points and the match was settled in a tie break.

De Minaur won 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(5)

WTA Bad Homburg Final

Kerber v Siniakova

Kerber 4-1. Most recent meeting, Sep 2020, clay, Siniakova in 2. Kerber won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. She won on grass in 2015, 2 sets.

Long term overall win % are better for Siniakova. Win %’s in 2021 are even. Long term grass results are much better for Kerber. She won 39 of her last 50. She won Wimb in 2018. Stats for the tournament favour Kerber.

I was surprised when any player was prepared to play 2 matches in a day just days before Wimbledon. All credit to them for not tanking or withdrawing. Especially so for Kerber as she played 6 sets yesterday. Siniakova won both matches yesterday in straight sets.

Kerber clearly wants to do well this week in her home country. She hasn’t had much success in recent months so the chance of taking a title is too good an opportunity to walk away from. Back Kerber around 2.20 to 2.30. As she will be a little more tired than Siniakova we could see 3 sets. Lay set 1 winner.

Suitable Strategies: Lay the Leader. Lay Set One Winner

Update: Kerber was broken in her 2nd service game. The market was biased towards the German. Her price only reached 1.95 instead of the 2.10 that could be expected. I went in with 1/3 stake on Kerber and would have added to the position at a higher price. Siniakova’s next service game went on for a while and eventually Kerber broke. She held her own serve comfortably and then broke again. I had remove some of the liability after the break back.

I intended leaving it until the end of the set but Kerber started to struggle on serve so I removes all liability. Of the remaining 4 games, 3 of them were breaks and in the 4th, Kerber saved 3 break points before taking the set.

As Kerber’s serve had not looked so solid towards the end of the set I felt it was worth a small lay, ideally with some of the green from set 1. Siniakova was immediately broken. Siniakova did break back to get to 2-2 but wouldn’t win another game. Some of the chat members managed to catch the break back by Siniakova but the 2nd set robbed us of a little of our first set profit.

Kerber won 6-3, 6-2.

——————————————————————————————————————————-

Friday 25th June

WTA Eastbourne:

Giorgi v Kontaveit

Kontaveit 1-0 (Feb 2020, ind hard, 3rd set tie break). Long term overall win % are much stronger for Kontaveit. Her 12 month and 2021 results are stronger. Both have good long term grass results. Kontaveit still has the lead.

Kontaveit struggled against Golubic in the last round She took the 2nd set in a tie break having been a set and a break behind.

Giorgi has come through the qualifying rounds. In the main draw she beat Pliskova and Sabalenka in 3 sets. All her main draw matches went to 3.

Stats for the tournament favour Kontaveit for everything except service holds. Giorgi is playing well above her average level. I give her the edge. Very good chance of 3 sets. Lay Kontaveit around 1.45 and remove liab at 1.90. Lay set 1 winner.

Suitable Strategies: Lay the Leader, Lay the Set One Winner

Update: It was looking as though we might not get our price to lay Kontaveit. Giorgi had 3 break points in the very first game but Kontaveit held. There were no more break points until the 5th game with the score at 2-2. Kontaveit saved both break points to hold. Giorgi was serving at 3-4. She went 0-30 down and Kontaveit’s price hit 1.41. I laid with 1/3 stake.

Kontaveit completed the break of serve and I laid another 1/3 stake at 1.27.

Kontaveit was serving for the set at 5-3. She saved 3 break points but Giorgi had another one a broke serve. Nice green screens all round. I advised removing 50% of liability. Then Giorgi retired!

As the first set was not complete, bets on the match odds market were void.

Permission to say, COCK!

ATP Mallorca

Querrey v Mannarino

H2H 3-3. Most recent meeting, Oct 2019, ind hard, Querrey won in 2. He won their last 3 matches. Never met on grass.

Overall win % are fairly even. Both have strong grass results. Slight edge to Querrey.

Querrey struggled in the first round and needed a 3rd set tie break to beat Carballes Baena. He had a walkover in round 2 and beat Bautista Agut in 2 sets in the last round.

Mannarino has been underdog in every round. He beat Lopez in 3 sets in the last round.

Both players have served well but also made little impact on their opponent’s serves. This looks like having at least 1 tie break.. Some value on Mannarino and I think he takes a set but I am going with Querrey to win a tight match. Back Querrey around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.50.

Suitable Strategies: Back the Server. Lay set 1 winner

Update: I don’t advise using Back the Server for every game. If you only use it on a few games you decrease your chances of being caught by the break of serve. We were backing the servers when they went 0-15 down. There were a couple where Querrey went 0-30 down. One was in his first service game. I was too busy trying to get matched at 1.95 and type in the chat about what I was doing that in the end I didn’t even get matched! Later there was another opportunity to back him at 0-30 at 1.96 and some of us got that one. Querrey held each time. In fact he was not broken in the match.

I had suggested that the match was suitable for Lay the Set winner and in the chat I advised a small lay as Querrey had not faced a break point. Mannarino did finally get a break point and some people took my advice to remove some liability at that score. Querrey wasn’t broken and got a break himself. He easily served out the set and the match.

Some took the 1.96 on Querrey and ran with it.

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