07:00 – Melzer v Simon
Rankings are 44 and 10. Head to head is 1-0 to Melzer. However that was in 2006 and on clay.
Simon wins 80% of his service games to Melzer’s 78%. Simon save 66% of break points against him to Melzer’s 57%.
If we look at break points converted Simon gets 42% to Melzer’s 40%.
So they look quite even in terms of the stats. I would say Melzer has looked the better player this week. We could be looking at a close match here.
Take your pick as to which player you back on serve. I would go for Simon.
I think Simon will edge it but he’s in for a fight!
Update: And a fight it was! Great match to watch. Dominated by serve it was close to the end with Simon winning 6-4, 7-6 . I was his greater experience that brought him through in the end. Melzer just seems to lack a bit of self belief.
09:00 – Tsonga v Troicki
Rankings are 7 and 32. Head to head is 1-0 to Troicki.
Tsonga wins 89% of his service games and saves 69% of break points against him. Troicki has been impressive this week and this should be a tight match.
Tsonga is fave on betfair at 1.31 but I think that price is too low. He struggled in his last match when he really should have won easily.
His stats though are strong enough to back him on his service games.
Tsonga to win in 2 close sets.
Update: Tsonga started as expected and took the first set 6-1. I had backed him on serve and when he was in a strong lead I put a back bet on and let it run to the end of the set when I greened up. He was playing great tennis and I expected the same in the second set. However it was a reversal with Troicki making Tsonga look very ordinary and taking the set 6-2. The final set was closer than the 6-3 scoreline suggests with a few breaks and break points.
Troicki through 1-6, 6-2, 6-3