A few games worth a mention today so I’ll put my thoughts into one post.
We have torrential rain forcast for London this afternoon so a high chance of interruptions.
Chiudinelli v Kohlschreiber – (Gerry Weber Open)
In the last round both men took three sets to beat opponents who should have been despatched in two.
Kohlschreiber is a strong favourite here and wins 80% of his service games.
The home crowd will get behind him and this should be a straight sets win.
Update: Kohlschreiber won 6-4, 7-5.
Benneteau v Lopez – (Aegon Champ, Queens)
Lopez is at 1.62 on Betfair which I think is wrong. Head to heads are 1-0 to Benneteau and he has played very well this week.
Lopez’ serve stats are very good but I noticed he has played fewer matches than a lot of the other players so the figures may be slightly misleading. However he has won 85% of his service games to Benneteau’s 74%.
Benneteau’s first serve is more accurate than Lopez’ with a solid 66% for the season so far.
Lopez prefers clay courts and I feel it will be Benneteau’s day today. It should be a great match to watch.
Back both on serve. Get out quickly if either looks like being broken. You can always get back in if they pull the service game back level.
Update: The market had it right. Lopez won 6-2, 6-4.
Melzer v Zverev – (Gerry Weber Open)
Melzer made a slow start in his first round match but that could have been a reaction to his fantastic performance in the French Open last week. He got his act together having lost the first set to win 6-2 in the third.
German Zverev will be glad the clay season is over as this is the first time he has seen the second round of a tournament for a while. He had a very good win against Serra in straight sets.
He can serve well but Melzer should be able to deal with him comfortably.
Home advantage may level things slightly but not enough for Zverev
Back Melzer on serve or from the start to green up at the end of the first set.
Update: Zverev won 3-6, 7-6, 7-6.
Llodra v Cilic -(Aegon Champ, Queens)
Cilic’s serve should make all the difference today. He wins 85% of service games and whilst Llodra will put up a good fight as always Cilic should go through in 2 tight sets.
Llodra needs his serve to be firing well and at the moment it just isn’t.
Back Cilic on serve.
Update : Llodra won 7-6, 6-2.
Murray v Fish – (Aegon Champ, Queens)
Murray is at 1.20 which seems low when he is up against a player who beat him on a hard court ( arguably Murrays favourite surface) in March this year.
Fish is having a very good season and has been serving well. He wins 78% of service games.
Laying Murray has to be an option. If Fish can serve well and keep the first set tight Murray’s price will drift anyway. If Fish can get a break……kerching!
Update: Fish took the first set But Murray levelled at 1 set all. Bad light stopped play in the third set at 3-3.
Fish won 6-4, 1-6, 7-6.
Becker v Davydenko – (Gerry Weber Open)
Davy’s price of 1.77 may look very tempting. However, trade with care. The Russian can be very fragile when returning from injury.
He’s also playing a very capable German infront of German crowd.
Trade it carefully. Wait to see how the opening couple of games go. If Davy seems to be serving well then back him on serve.
If Becker gets inspiration from the home crowd ( the German players are performing very well this week) then he might take his first ever set off Davydenko and maybe even win this.
Edit: Correction – Becker beat Davy at Wimbledon in 2008 in 3 straight sets.
Update: Becker won 6-3, 6-4.