Thursday 11th April 2013

Wow it’s a tough card today!

I can’t remember the last time I looked at a list of matches with most of the matches genuinely able to go either way. Usually we have the more “certain” matches that naturally offer low value but even those are thin on the ground. I do a lot of research for the matches although I can usually filter out the ones i aren’t interested in but today i have had to go into detail on just about every match.

Shorter thoughts on the matches but more matches covered today.

 

There’s a lot of love for Bertens against Vinci. Vinci starts at 1.62 . Bertens had a good first round win over Arruabarrena but her recent form hasn’t been great. I am with Vinci but I want at least 1.85 .

Update: Bertens looked unbeatable in the first set but it was Vinci who strolled through the second. Vinci took a tight 3rd set.

Vinci won 2-6, 6-3, 6-4.

 

Zemlja is my pick against Laaksonen who struggled against local player Rachidi in the last round. Zemlja had a tough first round battle with Bachinger (6-7, 7-5, 7-6) but I feel that was an ideal match to help him make the transition to clay). 1.42 is too low to enter though and will be looking for 1.65 or better.

Update: Zemlja won 7-6, 6-1.

 

Begu and Cadantu will probably go to 3 sets. Begu is favourite at 1.77 but I expect a swingy match with both players trading low. Slight edge to Cadantu for me.

Update: Rollercoaster! Cadantu won 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

 

Anderson takes on Carreno-Busta in Africa. A lot of love again for the underdog but this was one of the few matches that seems to offer a decent value favourite. Most people seem to disagree with me though! Carreno-Busta beat Andujar in 3 sets in the last round but Andujar’s serve wasn’t the best. We can expect Anderson to serve a level above that today. Greedy as ever I will wait for 1.70 on Anderson.

Update: easy win. Anderson hit 1.81 ( i took 1.80) when Carreno-Busta held his first service game. The graph went straight down after that.

Anderson won 6-3, 6-3.

 

Craybas v Peer is a tricky one. Craybas was certainly helped by Goerges in her last match. Peer has shown some fight so far but her recent results are poor. Peer starts at 1.60 but this is one to take the low lays offered when/if she goes a break up. Slight edge given to Peer but based on little more than gut feeling.

Update: Both struggled to hold serve but especially Craybas.

Peer won 6-1, 6-3.

 

Klizan has a strong head to head record over Volandri. Klizan starts as favourite but he isn’t in good form. Volandri has come through the qualifying rounds and also had a good win over an admittedly poor Mathieu in the last round. If Klizan’s game is below par today Volandri is in the form to take advantage. I will look to lay Klizan below  130 – 1.35 .

Update: Klizan won an early break taking us down to 1.20-ish. I had laid at 1.30 but wasn’t convinced it was the right thing to do. However Volandri pulled level and I took the small profit. Volandri had his chances but just couldn’t take enough of them.

Klizan won 6-4, 7-6.

 

Querrey looked exhausted in his Davis Cup match at the weekend. He has had time to rest but I’m not sure he will be busting a gut to go deep into this event.  I think if he starts to find the match tough he won’t be too unhappy to have the rest of the week off. Worth a lay below 1.30 .

Update: Querrey pulled out with an injury before the match started. Karlovic replaced him.

 

Isner and Sock aren’t expected to have a lot of breaks. Isner starts at 1.32 and if he drops to 1.20 its a lay for me. Should be a close.

Update: Isner won 7-5, 6-7, 7-6.

 

At least yesterday’s rain gives us a chance to watch Almagro and Monfils at a decent hour. 1.27 isn’t a back price for me but I will be waiting for anything above 1.50 . If I don’t get it I won’t be too unhappy as I am looking forward to watching the match.

Update: Almagro somehow managed to lose the first set but came back strong in sets 2 and 3.

Almagro won 2-6, 6-0, 6-3.

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