Thursday 11th October

Its a split shift for me today as my wife has a hospital appointment at 10 over in Kidderminster. So I was up just before 5am and managed to get on Medina Garrigues against Watson. Garrigues took the set in a  tie break so there were a few nervy moments but certainly worth getting up early for.

Nothing now until 7 so its blog time!

 

Most of the starting prices look a bit tight today.

Querrey almost messed up the third set against a weary Nishikori yesterday so unless he plays a lot smarter today he won’t be troubling Berdych too much. Berdych is at 1.30 though so I’ll be waiting for a higher entry.

 

Tsonga has never lost a set to Baghdatis in a main draw match but he seemed to lose concentration quite often against Paire and Baghdatis is playing very well at the moment. I think its worth laying Tsonga if his price spikes down to 1.20 in the early few games. I think this will be a lot closer than the market is suggesting.

 

Cilic starts at 1.80 against Verdasco. Their most recent match was almost a year ago and Verdasco has won their last 2 meetings. He leads the head to heads 4-2. This one is really close but based on recent results I have to give a small edge to Verdasco. Both players lost in the first round in China but Verdasco went out to Querrey whilst Cilic lost to Copil. Verdasco won as an underdog against Monaco in the second round this week so I think he is worth a go against Cilic who can be vulnerable in opening sets.

 

Tommy Haas made a slow start in his match with Robredo although the scoreline doesn’t look like he did. Robredo went a break up early in the match but then seemed to fall apart aided by some excellent play from Haas. Next up for the German is Tipsarevic.

This should be a great match. Haas leads the head to heads 2-1 although in all 3 matches Haas was the higher ranked player. Now Tipsarevic is a top 10 player and I feel he will come through a very close match. Tipsarevic starts at 1.62 but I feel this should be nearer 1.80 so i won’t be getting involved at the start ( well, perhaps a small back on Tipsarevic just in case he runs away with the set).

 

Petkovic got just her second win since returning from injury. She beat Zahlavova Strycova in straight sets. Ivanovic also won in straight sets against Niculesu. She went out in the third round last week to Oprandi who is playing well without all the bandages we have become used to seeing her in.

Ivanovic is at 1.47 on Betfair. If Perkovic’s win gives her confidence a boost she is capable of beating Ivanovic but I think it’s more likely that we see a close first set with Ivanovic running away with the second. 1.65 and above are more realistic entries on the Serb.

    Trading Guide

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