Thursday 27th September 2012

I had a lie in until 5am. My brain’s still in bed………hope the coffee kicks in soon!

 

Sharapova hasn’t had things al her own way this week. Heather Watson took the first set in a tie break and Sharapova only won the third set 6-4. Safarova had chances to take the second set yesterday but wasn’t able to serve out the set …..twice.

Today’s opponent is Sam Stosur who doesn’t tend to do well in the weeks after the US Open. She lost the opening set against Schiavone but was just about able to close out the third set 7-5.  Cibulkova didn’t make things easy for the Aussie but perhaps the added incentive of Cibs having said Stosur was like a man pulled her through in 2 tight sets.

Sharapova leads the head to heads 10-1. Most of their matches have been one sided but their last one was extremely tight with them sharing the first 2 sets in tie breaks and Sharapova taking the third 7-5. The match before that was Stosur’s only win and it was over in 2 sets.

Sharapova starts at 1.40 which has to be too low. She is very unlikely to get through this match without being broken a few times. If Heather can take her to 3 sets you have to feel Stosur has a good chance. In the end it will come down to who plays best in the big points and that is usually Sharapova’s strength.

I will be waiting for a higher price on her. An early Stosur break would be perfect.

Update: Stosur was being very aggressive from the first game but her attepted passes were usually a little forced and missed the target. It was Sharapova who broke first half way through the set but Syosur won the next 3 games including 2 breaks of serve to take the set.

It was a bit of an off day for the Russian and she seemed rattled.  She broke first in the second set but again was broken straight back.  Stosur won another break and served for the match but was broken straight back. The set went into a tie break and it  was the Aussie who finally won it 12-10 having saved a set point.

Stosur won 6-4, 7-6.

 

Gasquet hasn’t played since the US Open 4th round finish. He leads the head to heads against Dimitrov 2-0.

Dimitrov needed a third set tie break to get past Yang in the last round. Last year he reached the quarter finals in Bangkok losing to Murray in straight sets.

Gasquet has reached the quarter finals of all 3 indoor hard court tournaments that he has played in 2012. He may make a slow start today while he gets used to the court so I won’t be surprised to see Dimitrov get an early break. That would be perfect as I feel the Frenchman will soon take control of the match and the higher price on him will be excellent value.

Update: Dimitrov did take the first break and the first set. In the second he had a 5-2 lead but Gasquet managed to pull him back and level the match. A single break in the third set gave Gasquet the win.

Gasquet won 5-7, 7-5, 6-4.

    Trading Guide

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