Thursday 4th April 2013

Just 11 matches this evening and tonight but they are nicely spread with decent prices available in most of them. The late matches with Kirilenko and Kerber are 2 of the 3 matches with an SP of 1.10 or lower ( the other being Serena Williams) so I won’t feel I have to stay up into the small hours. I don’t expect any of those 3 to struggle too much.

 

People seem to be playing down Mattek Sands’ win over Sloane Stephens. Whilst it has to be said that Stephens played an awful match it must also be noted that Mattek Sands also played extremely well for that win and didn’t give her opponent any chance of getting back into the match.

Today Sands plays fellow American Madison Keys. They have played just once before which was in November last year on the hard courts in Phoenix. Keys won in straight sets.

Keys is another American who shows a lot of promise. I can’t say I am convinced that she will progress as she is expected to.

Stats for the last 3 months have them very close with Keys edging it in most categories but Sands converted a higher percentage of break point chances.

I think we see 3 sets here and probably Sand’s recent form and confidence will be enough to get the win. I think this is one to watch the opening exchanges before getting involved but if Sands is serving well and we get the chance of laying Keys below 1.70 I will most likely be taking it.

 

Cirstea had a walkover in the second round when Medina Garrigues withdrew. Her first round match was a lot closer than perhaps it should have been. Malek served well with 5 aces, just 1 double fault and a first serve percentage of 68%. In contrast Cirstea struggled with her own serve. A first serve percentage of just 47% was helped out by her winning 63% of her second serve points. Those numbers won’t get the job done against Safarova.

Safarova played a pretty solid match against Lucic Baroni. She served well and punished the second serves of her opponent.

Safarova leads the head to heads 2-1 and the set count is 5-2 . She starts at 1.84 which I’d say is a fair price but I will be looking to lay Cirstea below 1.80 .

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