Hobart – Semi Final
Kerber v Barthel:
Kerber has been the better player in Hobart this week and her starting price of 1.90 is very tempting. Part of the reason for that price is that she has a wrist injury. It isn’t a new injury but with the Australian Open starting on Sunday she may not want to risk playing deeper into this week. it did seem to bother her after the second set against Cirstea.
Barthel beat defending champion Gajdosova in 3 sets havingg had a nightmare first set where she coulddn’t hit a first serve to save her life. Once she started playing properly in the second set Gajdosova couldn’t stay with her and crumbled under the pressure ( although I had expectd her to do so much earlier in the week).
Surprisingly the two Germans have never played each other. As its a big match I expect Barthel to suffer more with nerves and she should make a slower start. If Kerber is unaffected by her wrist then she is a massive favouritre for me but the only way we will know is to watch the match. Any pain could be managed by strapping and painkillers and she will be keen to secure the openiing set.
I’ll place a small back at the start on Kerber as if she starts well her price will collapse and i’ll manage it from there in-play.
Heineken Open – Semi Final
Rochus v Kohlschreiber:
Rochus has come through two tight three set matches which ended 7-5 and 7-6 in the third. In both he came back from 2-4 in that final set. He has been very consistent and difficult to break even though he isn’t really known as a big server. His ground strokes have been solid from both wings.
Kohlschreiber has made a good start to 2012 and seems to have a new positive attitude. ot sure how long that will last but he will prove to be a very difficult opponeent today.
They have played 3 times with Kohlschreiber leading 2-1 but the last one was in 2007. All 3 matches were on clay.
Based on previous games this week I don’t see many breaks in this game. Kohlschreiber has the edge in just about every stats category and rightly starts as strong favourite on the exchanges but 1.30 seems too low.
We have the option of either waiting for a higher price on the German or we can lay him. Personally I prefer to wait for an early higher price as i expect Kohlschreiber to get the win. Anything over 1.70 would be attractive.