Kavcic v Monaco: Monaco wasn’t very impressive in his match against Berlocq and was perhaps saved by the rain break which gave him time to rethink his tactics. Berlocq came back from a break down to take the opening set in a tie break. Kavcic came through a tricky match with Benneteau in 3 sets.
I expect Monaco to win the match but I also expect him to trade higher than the SP of 1.37 . Whether or not we have another underdogs day remains to be seen but I will place a small lay from the start. Don’t be surprised to see Kavcic take a set. Often Monaco needs to be behind to get him to concentrate on the job in hand.
Stakhovsky is going through another poor run of form. He lost the opening set against Pospisil (who??) and needed a tie break in the 3rd set to get the win. Del Bonis beat an injured Mayer in straight sets. Stakhovsky has lost his last 6 matches against left handers and Del Bonis has won 5 in a row when playing a big server so there’s a real chance that Del Bonis takes at least a set. The courts could be slower today after yesterday’s rain which won’t help Stak.
I won’t get involved from the start but will be looking to lay Stakhovsky lower than his starting price of 1.83 . He often has break chances early and wastes them so I’m sure a lower lay price will present itself. It will be a minor surprise if Stak loses the match.
If Stebe can serve like he did in the first and third sets against Gonzalez then Fognini is in trouble. This should be quite close. The German will have the support of the home crowd and Fognini doesn’t have a good record when starting as a favourite under 1.50 . One thing that may work against Stebe is that he has had an extra day to think about his excellent win over Gonzalez. It should give him confidence but may have been a distraction from his prep for this match.
I’ll lay from the start and hope Fognini has a bad start from the service line.