Tuesday 23rd October

Another trip to the hospital today ( hopefully the last) with my wife’s eye. I’m taking the rest of her with me obviously. This means I will probably miss the first couple of matches but there’s a decent list today so no big deal.

Istanbul starts today with 2 of the 3 matches looking potentially good for trading.

 

Kvitova leads the head to heads 3-0 against Radwanska. The most recent matches were in 2011 with a 3 setter at Eastbourne and a tight straight sets win in Istanbul.

Kvitova starts at 1.66 but recent losses to Suarez Navarro and Petra Martic mean I can’t back her at that price. I do feel her power will prove too much for A Rad but I won’t be backing below evens.

Update: I wish I hadn’t backed her at all. Terrible start from Kvitova in the first set. She staged a bit of a comeback but just wasn’t good enough.

Radwanska won 6-3, 6-2. Kvitova has pulled out of the tournament with a viral illness. Stosur replaces her.

 

Serena plays her first match since the US Open and is up against Kerber who beat her just before that US Open campaign. Kerber reached the quarter finals in China before retiring against Sharapova with no apparent injury. She was 0-6, 0-3 down at the time. She didn’t play the next tournament presumably to make sure she was fit for this week.

Serena has to be a little rusty with no matches for 6 weeks and I think we’ll see Kerber get off to the faster start. I’ll be laying Serena at 1.17 but won’t get too greedy. it would be great if Kerber can take the opening set and I’ll move all green to Williams.

Update: No slow start from Williams although she was helped by a very nervous Kerber. Part way through the first set Williams seemed uncomfortable and seemed to hold her lower back. The next few points saw her struggle and my hopes for kerber grew but it was short lived.

Williams won 6-4, 6-1.

 

Nieminen and Anderson are two players whose form can fluctuate a fair bit. Anderson beat Nieminen in Shanghai and leads the head to heads 2-0 . His serve faltered against Hewitt although he did take the Aussie to 3 sets.

Nieminen has never lost in the first round in Basel and even reached the final in 2006. This is Anderson’s first visit and I just feel Nieminen will be the more comfortable of the two players. Anderson will need his serve to be consistently good. I will be laying Anderson if his price drops below 1.40 in the early games.

Update: Anderson went a double break down in the first set. Nieminen served for the set at 5-2 and 5-4 but was broken both times. Anderson won the set in a tie break. Nieminen was broken 3 times in set 2.

Anderson won 7-6, 6-3.

 

Simon and Tipsarevic have had some battles in the past. Their matches usually have huge price swings and can be tough to read and predict.

5 of their 7 matches have been 3 setters with the other 2 being 6-4, 6-4 and 7-6, 7-6. Simon leads the head to heads 5-2.

You get the feeling that Tipsarevic has given almost everything he has this season. It has been a great 10 months for him and he will finish in the top 10. I expect Simon to be the fitter player today and I will be taking a position on him above evens.

Update: Simon was broken in his first service game and I laid Tipsarevic.  Simon broke back and broke again but with the Frenchman about to serve for the set Tipsarevic retired. Bets void.

Simon won 5-4(ret)

    Trading Guide