US Open 2012 – week 1 – Monday

So here we go with the last Grand Slam of the year. We have extensive live video from Betfair and Bet365.

As usual in the first few days we are over run with games and it can be difficult to pick the right matches to trade. Unfortunately my new office won’t be ready until after this tournament. The 6 screens I have will be ideal for the slams but as my desk hasn’t been delivered yet I am limited to 3 screens. (the beer fridge is on order too!).

For the first 2 or 3 days I will give briefer thoughts on a few games.

 

 Cirstea leads the head to heads 3-0 against Lisicki although one of her wins was due to Lisicki retiring. Cirstea reached the quarter finals in Dallas last week where she lost to Jankovic. Lisicki reached the 3rd round at the London Olympics where Sharapova knocked her out in 3 sets.

Lisicki lost in the first round of the Rogers Cup to Suarez Navarro so is well rested coming into this tournament. She withdrew from Dallas where she was defending champion due to an abdominal injury. She has said she was not 100% for that event which has given her an extra week to prepare for the US Open. Obviously we can’t be certain that she is fit but my feeling is that she will be and was being cautious when she pulled out last week. I expect Lisicki to get her first win over Cirstea.

Update: Lisicki took the opening set but Cirstea levelled the match. The rain delay came in the second game of the third set which was at 30-30 on Lisicki’s serve. Lisicki was broken when the game resumed and Cirstea ran away with the set.

Cirstea won 4-6, 6-2, 6-2.

 

Stosur starts at 1.13 against Martic. They have played just once before which was on clay in May this year. That went to 3 sets. While I expect Stosur to win I think we have a decent chance that Stosur trades higher. A speculative cheap lay is in order.

Update: Not this time! Stosur raced to a 5-0 lead and won 6-1, 6-1.

 

Most of the ATP games have a short priced favourite. Gilles Simon can be so flaky at times. He starts at 1.22 against American Russell. Russell can be inconsistent away from his home country but like many Americans he plays his best tennis on home soil. He reached the quarter finals of the Farmers Classic and the Atlanta Open. These 2 have played twice before and each time Russell took a set.

Its worth a lay of Simon at 1.22 to trade out higher. I expect Simon to come through in a best of 5 set match.

Update: Simon was broken very early but Russell handed the break straight back. Simon took the set in a tie break. Russell then took the next 2 sets but Simon came through to win in 5.

The initial lay worked ok but I lost some of the profit due to staying in the market for Russell to hold. Laying Simon after he won a very close opening set was a great second lay.

Simon won 7-6, 3-6, 5-7, 6-4, 6-1.

 

 

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