US Open 2013 – week 1, Sunday

Baghdatis has found some form from somewhere and when that happens he is a match for almost anyone. Who expected him to beat Anderson in 3 sets?

Wawrinka starts at 1.39 and whilst he is rightly the  favourite that price is way too low.

Wawrinka leads the head to heads 3-0 although only one of those was in the last 2 seasons. He won at the Australian Open last year in 4 sets.

Baggy hasn’t been broken once in his 2 matches. He has really been going after the second serves and has won 58% of points against them.

This has to be 4 of 5 sets. If Baghdatis can maintain his level then he has a great chance but I am going with Wawrinka in 4 sets.

Update: Wawrinka won 6-3, 6-3, 6-7, 7-6.

 

Seppi leads the head to heads with Istomin 5-1 with all matches being in the last 3 seasons. Both their matches this year were in grand slams with Seppi winning in 5 sets at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Five of the ten sets they have played in 2013 were tie breaks.

I am favouring Istomin in this one. He has a more impressive scalp this week in Almagro and also Seppi struggled more than he should have done against Devvarman who really should have taken that 3rd set.

Stats for the last week and also the last month all favour Istomin. However I want to lay Seppi a break ahead as I don’t like to take Istomin below evens.

Istomin in 4 sets.

Update: They love their 5 setters! Istomin won 6-3, 6-4, 2-6, 3-6, 6-1. 

 

People are talking about a let down for Hewitt after his win over Del Potro. I don’t agree with that as a former world number 1 has known the feeling of beating top players on many occasions. His issues today are more likely to be physical. 5 sets against Del Potro and 4 sets in the previous round will have taken their toll.

Today’s opponent Dolskoy also had a 5 set match in the last round although against a significantly weaker opponent than Del Potro.

The physical factor levels things up a little and Hewitt at 1.30 is too low.If I can get a lay near 1.20 then I will be taking it for a trade. I’d expect Hewitt to find a way to get the job done.

Update: Hewitt won 6-3, 7-6, 3-6, 6-1.

 

Radwanska has won all 3 of her matches with Makarova. All 3 were on hard courts and the Russian failed to win a single set.

Things won’t be as easy for Radwanska today as Makarova has found a way to lift her level in recent months. Where she used to be able to start a match well but then fade she is now able to maintain her consistency and seems mentally stronger on the big points.

Radwanska is quite capable of losing concentration for 2 or 3 games and if she does that in the opening set we will get a much more attractive entry price than her SP of 1.27 .

I fancy Makarova to nick a set today. Radwanska to win in 3.

Update: Makarova won 6-4, 6-4.

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