US Open 2014 – week 1, day 1

The last Grand Slam of the year gets under way this afternoon. Traders will face the usual problems. So many matches on at the same time that it can be difficult to pick a match and then concentrate on it. The other problem  is that in the opening few days value is very thin on the ground so we have to monitor a lot of matches to watch for in play value. There’s no way round it. The tournament isn’t run to make traders’ lives easy!

 

WTA, 16:00 – Bencic v Wickmayer

Wickmayer has played some good tennis at times this season. Despite that she has not won back to back main draw matches since February.

Other than her third round at Wimbledon Bencic hasn’t won back to back main draw matches since March.

Bencic starts at 1.59 which is too low in what is more or less a 50/50 match. Both have problems closing out matches so this should be a match with a few swings.

I will lay Bencic in the first set if she trades below 1.35 .

 

 

ATP, 16:00 – Stakhovsky v Seppi

Seppi has third round points to defend from last year. he has a winnable match against Stakhovsky who has lost in the first round for the last 3 years.

Stakhovsky reached the third round at Wimbledon and won a Challenger hard court tournament last month. In that tournament he didn’t play anyone inside the top 200.

Seppi reached the quarter finals in Winston Salem last week although his form has been below the level we might expect from him.

I think Seppi has more motivation  for this one and that he will find a way to win. However I expect his price to trade higher than his SP of 1.63 . I will wait for him to trade nearer evens before backing him.

 

 

WTA, 18:00 – Konta v Peer

Konta has had a couple of decent tournaments this season. Looking at her results for the year she tends to win the matches that the market expects her to win. She starts today at 1.70 .

Peer has reached three quarter finals this season. Two of them were on hard courts. She  has just 2 losses as favourite this season and both were in qualification rounds.

Over the last year Konta has a better record in main draw hard court matches and has a much stronger serve.

I would prefer a price above evens to back Konta. We have a good chance of getting this as I expect a few price swings in this one.

 

 

WTA, 20:00 – Errani v Flipkens

They have played twice before with Errani winning both times. The most recent was last season.

Flipkens has had a very respectable season on grass and hard courts. Her performances on clay are best forgotten.

Errani’s preparation for this week has not gone so well and she has lost 3 of hr last 4 hard court matches.

Flipkens took a month off after Wimbledon and has started the US hard court swing of the tour playing some decent tennis. She reached the quarter finals in New Haven last week.

Errani has changed her service action. It looks awkward and manufactured and her results suggest it has not yet become second nature to her.

Errani starts at 1.60 which normally would be a good price on her. On hard courts in the last 12, 6 and 3 months with the exception of service holds Errani has stronger stats.

Errani reached the semi finals in 2012 but lost in the second round last year. Flipkens lost to Venus Williams in the firs round last year.

At some stage Errani will figure out her own service action. She has continued to serve a high percentage of first serves in but she basically has two 2nd serves rather than a first serve and a 2nd.  This tournament last year cost her a lot of ranking points and she has a chance of regaining some of them this season if she can get beyond the second round. However due to her more recent form I won’t back her below evens unless Flipkens comes out playing shockingly bad tennis.

Errani’s consistency on her ground strokes will force Flipkens into errors eventually but I think Flipkens will take the lead early.

 

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