US Open 2014 – week 1, day 7

 

ATP, 18:00 – Cilic v Anderson

Cilic leads the head to heads and is 3-0 on hard courts. The last time they met was in February in the final of Delray Beach. That went to 3 sets with the first two sets being decided in tie breaks. None of Cilic’s wins on hard courts were straight sets victories.

Anderson is more than a little fortunate to still be in the competition. He was taken to 5 sets by Cuevas in the first round and was serious danger of being knocked out. He scraped through in a 5th set tie break. In the last round he went a double break behind in the first set. He pulled back to a tie break which Janowicz won but the Pole’s unravelling was under way. I am not convinced Janowicz’s woeful performance was down to fatigue from last week.

Cilic is one of the few players who hasn’t been involved in any real drama in the first week.  He was in control of his first round match when Baghdatis retired in set 2.  Marchenko kept the opening set close in the second round but never really troubled Cilic.

Cilic starts at 1.46 which is a fair price but as the sets will be close and decided by just a few points I would prefer a slightly higher entry. We can’t take anything for granted in this tournament but I expect Cilic to take this in 4 sets.

 

 

ATP, 23:00 – Monfils v Gasquet

Their last 3 meetings were on hard courts although 2 of them were indoors in Montpellier. These three matches took place in the last 2 seasons. Monfils won the last 2 encounters.

Neither player leads all stats categories over the last 3 months Although comparing performances against the same players puts Gasquet out in front.

I am really looking forward to watching this one. They know each other’s game really well and I can’t see it being over in 3 sets. Monfils is understandably the favourite. He reached the 3rd round in Cincinnati where he lost to Federer in 3 sets. He hasn’t really been tested so far this week.

Gasquet has struggled with injury this season. He reached the semi final in Washington but having got to the third round in Toronto he withdrew before his match with Andy Murray. The abdominal injury would force him to withdraw from Cincinnati. He says he has been pain free this week but his body will be severely tested today.

Monfils starts at 1.74 which is a little low but is not far from being a fair price.

Part stake on Monfils at the start and I will add the rest above evens.

 

 

WTA, midnight – Bencic v Jankovic

So Sharapova’s out. Do we have another upset here? Wozniacki is a better quality underdog than Bencic. The Swiss player has already knocked out an in form Nara and also 6th seed Kerber who was beaten in straight sets.

Jankovic has been a sub 1.20 favourite in each of her 3 matches. Only Pironkova gave her a match.

Jankovic has a very consistent record at the US Open. Last year she reached the 4th round which was her best finish since she reached the final in 2008 .

In a way this is a similar situation to the Errani/Lucic Baroni match. Bencic is more likely to suffer a let down in this match and also Jankovic will be better able to handle the occasion.

Bencic will fight but when it comes down to the big points in the big games she will produce errors more often than winners.

Jankovic even has a similar SP to Errani at 1.42 and I am sure we will see a higher price.

Jankovic in 3.

    Trading Guide

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