US Open, week 1 – Monday

Here we go with the year’s last Major. Just a reminder that the men play best of 5 sets. Also the US Open is unique amongst the Grand Slam events in that there is a tie break in the final set rather than having to win by 2 clear games.

 

It would be easy to pick winners today but I am looking for games that offer some value so we get a bit more for our money.

 

Monaco v Seppi:

Seppi retired with a foot injury 2 weeks ago whilst playing Del Potro. This is his first match after that retirement.

Seppi leads the head to heads 2-1 but Monaco has won their only match in the last 3 years. That was on clay this year in Rome and it went to 3 sets. The hard surface won’t be good for Seppi’s foot and he will have to play at least 3 sets. I’d expect him to have to play more than that if he is to win as I don’t see him winning in straight sets. Also bear in mind that Seppi has entered a Challenger event next week so he isn’t exactly packed with confidence.

Monaco has improved his hard court performances recently and reached the quarter finals last week losing to Andy Roddick.

He should win in 3 or maybe 4 sets. I’ll be backing from the start and topping up if Seppi takes the lead in the first set.(1.41)

Update: Monaco started very slowly and was 2 breaks down in the first set. He came back to win the set on a tie break.

Monaco won 7-6, 6-2, 6-2.

 

Stepanek v Kohlschreiber:

Stepanek leads the head to heads 5-1 and has won their last 3 matches. He recently won the Legg Mason Classic. He didn’t play last week but the previous week he reached the 3rd round losing to Djokovic.

Kohlschreiber also reached the third round in Cincinnati but before that hasn’t enjoyed too much success.

Neither player has a great record in recent Majors with Stepanek losing 6 of the last 7 matches  and Kohlschreiber losing 4 of the last 5.

I don’t see Stepanek losing this over a best of 5 match. He has shown better form than his opponent over the last few weeks and I will place part stake on him from the start with a view to managing the position from there. (1.55)

Update: Stepanek won 6-4, 6-1, 6-3.

 

Robson v Morita:

Laura Robson has come through qualifying with 3 wins. Morita has never won a match at Flushing Meadows. She lost her last 4 matches and although they were against players who you would expect to beat her winning or losing can become a habit.

Robson has a slightly more consistent serve although her second serve can be fragile. She has better stats on return of serve and especially against second serves.

I feel that Robson has a decent chance here and can take advantage of Morita’s low confidence and lack of success at this venue. I’ll be laying Morita. (1.70/2.4)

Update: Robson won an early break but was immediately broken back. The set went to a tie break which Robson won.  After 1 game of the second set Morita retired.

Robson won 7-6, 1-0 (ret)

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