US Open, week 1 – Tuesday

A decent start to the week yesterday. The slamtracekr is back which is good to see and it was very fast. A few people in the chatroom said it wasn’t working for them though. Not sure why.

 

Again today its hard to find matches with decent value and also a strong likelihood of success. Trading in-play is definitely the way to go as always.

 

Haider-Maurer v Bubka:

Bubka reached the final of a Challenger event although that was 4 weeks ago. He has had to come through qualifying for the US Open but came through strongly. He has never played a main draw match at a Major but has come a long way in recent months and starts as favourite on Betfair.

Haider Maurer often manages to get through a round or 2 at the Majors and took Soderling to 5 sets in the first round last year. However his form in recent weeks has been poor and he retired from his last match a week ago.

Bubka will be full of confidence and once he is over his initial nerves I expect him to come through this match. I feel his starting price of 1.60 is too low but also feel that he could make a slow start so I will wait for higher prices before getting involved. (1.60)

Update: Bubka won 6-3, 6-2, 3-6, 6-4

 

Tursunov v Darcis:

Tursunov hasn’t enjoyed much success lately and has won just 1 match since Wimbledon. Darcis has won 16 matches and also won their previous meeting which was just a week ago. He came back from a set behind to take the match in 3.

Their stats on serve over the last 3 months are pretty similar but it is Darcis who has better stats on return of serve, especially on  second serve. He has won 6 in a row when the opponent was a big server.

Based on recent form, the last match they played and the effect that those facts will have on their respective confidence I expect Darcis to come through in 4 sets. Tursunov starts as favourite on Betfair and i will be laying him with part stake and hoping for an early lower price to lay the rest.(1.61/2.58)

Update: Wow, what a marathon! Darcis won 6-7, 4-6, 7-5, 6-1, 7-6.

 

Ljubicic v Kavcic:

Ljubicic hasn’t played since the Croatia Open at the end of July. That was on clay so no match practice for him on hard courts before this tournament. Not ideal.

Kavcic has had a couple of matches on the hard courts in last week’s tournament. He beat an injured Hewitt and then lost in straight sets to Giraldo.

Ljubicic won their only previous match although it was 2 years ago and on clay. I still feel that he has too much ability for Kavcic and that despite his lack of hard court time recently that he will be able to take this match quite comfortably.

Kavcic doesn’t have the strongest serve on the tour and holds just 68% of his service games compared to Ljubicic’s 81%.  Therefore he will have to work harder to win his points whereas Ljubicic can expect a fair number of easy, quick points from his serve.

Kavcic is likely to make the better start as he tends to lift his games for the Majors and Ljubicic could also be a little rusty. However I expect Ljubicic to come through in 4 sets.

I’ll be waiting for a few games to get a much higher price than SP (1.52)

Update: Ljubicic won 7-6, 3-6, 6-1, 7-5.

 

    Trading Guide

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