US Open, week 2 – Friday

Mens Quarter Finals:

Just 2 games today. Lets see if they can manage to fit them in before any rain comes.

Isner v Murray:

They have played 3 times before (  I think, records seem to conflict) and Murray has won them all. They have played once in a Major which was the Australian Open last year and Murray won in straight sets.

Isner has been in great form and his serve has been superb. However we have a couple of trends that don’t look good for him. He has lost 7 in a row when his opponent is a top 10 player and has also lost 6 in a row when starting as underdog.

Murray had a serious lapse of form against Haase in round 2 and went 2 sets down. He was able to increase his level and come back. Since then he  has showed the form that you would expect from the world number 4.

Murray has shown he can handle the Isner serve and had lost just 1 set against him in the past. However with the American’s big serve Murray’s starting price of 1.17 is a little low. I think we’ll see a price nearer 1.30/1.40 in the first set and that is where I will back him. He is one of the best returners of serve on the tour and Isner will need to do a lot more than serve well to have any chance at all.

Murray to win in 3 or 4 sets.

Update: Murray won 7-5, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6.

 

Roddick v Nadal:

Nadal leads the head to heads 6-3. Roddick’s wins all came on hard courts. Their last 2 matches were both in 2010 and both went to 3 sets with each player winning  a match.

Nadal hasn’t been at his best recently although his form this week has been much improved. Concerns were voiced when he disappeared under the table at a press conference with stomoach cramps but that was nothing serious.

Roddick surprised me against Ferrer. He wasn’t just serving well but was also being a little more aggressive on his ground strokes. He will know that his only chance against Nadal will be to continue that aggression today.

Like the other quarter final we have a big serving American against a higher ranked player. I think Roddick will keep the opening set close and we will see a higher price than 1.22 on Nadal. It would be great if Roddick can win the first set in a tie break as we will have a juicier price to back Nadal.

Nadal to win in 4 sets.

Update: Nadal destroyed Roddick  6-2, 6-1, 6-3.

    Trading Guide

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