US Open, week 2 – Monday

The matches thin out this week although the doubles can be worth  a go with reduced stakes.

Predicting winners can be a little trickier too as current form can be more important than a higher ranking.

 

Pavlyuchenkova v Schiavone:

Schiavone leads the head to heads 3-1 and has won their last 2 matches. On hard courts she leads 2-1. She reached the semi finals in New Haven where she lost to Wozniacki.

Pav reached the quarters in New Haven and beat Jankovic in her last match here. I’m not sure JJ was 100% for that game.

The last time they played on a hard court was in last year’s US Open and Schiavone won 6-3, 6-0. I don’t think we will see such a one sided match today but I expect to see the same winner.

Pav starts as favourite on Betfair but I think she is going home. Schiavone hasn’t shown her best form up until now but she knows what it takes to win in the second week of a Major. I will be laying Pav with half stake and adding the rest if I can get a lower price in the first few games. (1.71/2.38)

Update: Schiavone wasn’t serving well especially in the first set. She won just 1 or 2 points on her second serve which normally isn’t enough to win a set. However the rest of her game was sound and she won the set. The serving got a little better after that set but she ended up losing the second set!

In a tight 3rd they exchanged breaks of serve. Schiavone served at 4-5. She went 15-40 down and pulled back to deuce. However Pav managed to get the break point and then took the match.

Pav won 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.

 

Tsonga v Fish:

These two haven’t played before. Neither player has lost a set yet. It could be argued that Tsonga has had a slightly tougher draw but they haven’t been tested yet.

Tsonga starts as favourite on Betfair but I think the market has that the wrong way round. Fish has been playing the tennis of his life, is now the top American player and also a top 10 player.

Tsonga has also been playing great tennis this summer with a couple of wins over Federer along the way.

This will potentially be the match of the day and should produce some fantastic tennis. Choosing a winner isn’t easy but if you look at the recent form and especially the form in America it suggests that Fish will win in front of the home crowd.

Tsonga has more power and Fish is more consistent. Over 5 sets I’ll take consistent every time. (1.87.2.14)

Update: Fish had 3 break points in one game but failed to take them. Tsonga had just 1 break point and took it. He was serving very well and held out to take the set. Tsonga’s level dropped in the second set and Fish was eventually able to take the set on a tie break.

It looked like Fish was taking control when he took the third set but it was a very tight match and Tsonga brought it level again. Thefifth set was a little one sided and Tsonga took the match.

Tsonga won 6-4, 6-7, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2.

 

 

Wozniacki v Kuznetsova:

Wozniacki leads the head to heads 4-2 and has won their last 3 matches. Both women have won their 3 matches in straight sets.

Kuznetsova isn’t the best mover on the tour and you would expect Woz to move her around to expose that flaw. Wozniacki usually concentrates on just getting the ball back and waiting for her opponent to make the errors.

I think against players like Serena and Stosur  Wozniacki will struggle this week but I’m not sure Kuznetsova has enough to seriously challenge her. If Woz makes her almost expected slow start we may get a higher price than SP But I expect her to come through. The best Kuznesova can hope for is taking it to 3 sets. Her best chance of taking a set is the first.   (1.33)

Update: Woz  seemed to be the stronger player early in the opening set. However Kuz took it to a tie break. Woz was 5-2 up in the tie break but managed to lose it. In the second set she was unable to deal with the windy conditions and Kuznetsova played very well. Kuz got an early break and looked to be cruising. At this stage I went to bed thinking that it wasn’t going to turn around ( plus it was 3am!)

Looking at the score Kuz hardly won a game after that. Wozniacki came back to take the second set and then the third was very one sided.

Wozniacki won 6-7, 7-5, 6-1.

 

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