US Open, week 2 – Wednesday

Obviously the match picks for yesterday still stand as the games are moved to today. Lets have a look at a couple more from today’s list….

 

Ferrer v Roddick:

Ferrer leads the head to heads 5-3 and they are 3-2 on hard courts. They have only played once in the last 2 years which was a Davis Cup match which Ferrer won in straight sets (best of 5).

The last time I saw Roddick play was his recent semi final with Isner. In the early stages of the match I was quite impressed with him but as the match progressed  his game became more and more passive which allowed Isner to get the breakthrough.

If Roddick thinks he will be able to just keep the ball in play and rely on Ferrer to make mistakes then he will not win this one. Roddick can obviously expect many cheap points on his own serve but Ferrer has proved in the past that he can cope with that serve. Once the ball is in play Ferrer is favourite to win the rally.

Ferrer himself has a very effective serve and holds over 85% of his service games.

Over the last 3 months they have exactly the same success against first serves but Ferrer wins significantly more points against second serves.

The courts have been on the slow side for hard courts and that has to favour Ferrer. Roddick is going to find it very difficult to get the ball past Ferrer other than on his serve. I expect the American’s ace count to drop in this match.

Half stake on Ferrer from the start. He can sometimes throw in a bad service game in the first half of the opening set. Then he gets mad. Then he gets better.

Update: A slow start from Ferrer who was broken in his first service game. After all the rain delays they finally managed to complete the match.  Roddick took a 2 set lead and whilst Ferrer was able to take the third set it was Roddick who won 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.

 

Wozniacki v Petkovic:

Today Petkovic wins a set. The thing we need to work out is whether she wins 1 or 2.

Woz started very well against Kuznetsova but faded towards the end of the opening set allowing her opponent to take it to a tie break. In that tie break she led 5-2 but still managed to lose it. She was outplayed in the first half of the second set and seemed to be going out but then stepped up a gear ( or 3) and took the set and then the match.

Petkovic has dropped just 1 set so far  and hasn’t really looked troubled.

Both their previous matches were in 2011 and they are 1-1 although Wozniacki’s win was on clay. Petkovic’s win was on a hard court and went to 3 sets.

Woz starts as favourite at 1.53 but I expect that to trade higher in the opening set. I feel that Petkovic needs to take the opening set to have a chance of victory.

I will place part stake (probably 1/3 ) on Woz just in case she runs away with the opening set but I expect to be getting odds over evens at some stage of the set. I think it will be Wozniacki who goes through in 3 sets.

 Update: Poor perfomance from Petkovic and a good one from Wozniacki.

Wozniacki won 6-1, 7-6.

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