Hernych v Schuettler
Rankings are 70 and 99. Head to head is 3-0 in Schuettler’s favour. They haven’t met for 12 months.
Their stats on serve are remarkably similar if unspectacular. So I looked at stats for receiving serve. Schuettler leads by a small margin in break points coverted and games won against serve.
The market has Schuettler at 1.78 .
Neither man has had much success recently but they have been quite unlucky with their opponents in the early rounds.
So the stats and head to head give Schuettler an edge for me. Both men’s serve stats are borderline for backing them on serve but I recommend watching the first 2 or 3 games to check that serves are operating well. Then I will be backing Shuettler on his serves and watching out for 15-40 opportunities.
Update: Wow! Topsey turvey match. Hernych won 1-6, 7-6, 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 . The prices were all over the place. Backing Schuettler’s serve in the first worked well and you could have let a back bet run to the end of the set. I switched to Hernych’s serve in the 3rd set having taken a small loss when he broke serve for the first time. I stayed out of the 5th set.
Because there were more first round matched than usual on at the same time, the traders were spread very thinly. Whilst the matches had good amounts matched, the money coming into the market in play was less than normal, leaving gaps between the prices that I found very frustrating. Still, a good start to the Open.
Hanescu v Isner
Rankings are 28 and 55. They havent met before.
2 consistent servers here but Isners serve has a little more bite to it. He wins 90% of his service games and saves 70% ofbreak points against him.
Hanescu has a better 1st serve % but he wins fewer points on his serve than Isner does on his.
Easy pick for the strategy to use. Back Isner on his serve. I expect him to go through fairly easily.
Update: Isner’s serve was solid as a rock. In the 2nd and 3rd sets, so was Hanescu’s as he took both sets to tie breaks.
Isner came through 6-1, 7-6, 7-6.
Bammer v Martinez Sanchez
Rankings are 29 and 43. they haven’t met before.
Bammer is favourite on BF at 1.51 but this one could go either way. I would expect a few breaks of serve and possibly a 3 setter.
Ideal for the 15-40 😉
Bammer probably prefers hard courts and MS prefers clay which could be the difference today. Bammer can be fragile at times though so wouldn’t want to pick a winner.
Check that at least 50K is matched on the match when it starts.
Update: Martinez Sanchez won 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 . I checked the liquidity before this match satted and it was below 50K. Thats a shame as there would have been some decent swings in this 3 setter.