The main thing I noticed yesterday is that the amount of money coming into a match in-play is less than in a non-Grandslam tournament. I put this down to the fact there are simply more games on at the same time and there are only so many traders to go round!
This should be back to normal after the first round matches.
Schnyder v Safarova
Rankings are 20 and 48 and head to head is 1-1. Schnyder won their last meeting which was this year.
Safarova has been posting better results recently and she is slight fave on BF at 1.84 .
On paper Schnyder should take it but she has been below par so this could be very close. Looks like an ideal one for the 15-40 or scalping.
I’m slightly leaning towards Safarova to go through.
Update: Schnyder won 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 . Price swings galore! You don’t get much closer than that 🙂
Luczak v Troicki
Rankings are 78 and 31. They have never met.
On the market they are close with Luczak as slight favourite. I find this a little strange. He is primarily a clay court player and has only played clay tournaments recently. Troicki prefers faster courts and his service stats arent too bad.
Only 58% of first serves in but he wins 70% of points when that first serve is successful. He wins 73% of his service games and saves 65% of break points against him.
Luczak has got to the final of 2 tournaments in recent weeks and won the massive Cordenons Challenger tournament a couple of weeks ago. He will take a little while to adapt to hard courts.
Back Troicki on serve. Not sure what i am missing here as the prices are crazy in my opinion. Time will tell.
Edit: Thanks to Paul from betfairdreams.wordpress.com for pointing out that Troicki is still struggling with injury which is why the prices are quite even. I’ll post another match however i think I’ll still be trading this one myself. The beauty of scalping is that you’re not exposed to the market for very long periods. if it looks like going wrong you get out. There is no limit to the number of times you can enter and leave a market 🙂
Troicki to progress to round 2, injury permitting.
Update: What a match! I left the match after the second set as i thought it was all over. Wrong! Troicki’s injury wasn’t bothering him and he moved to a 2 sets to 0 lead. But Luczak came back to take it into a final set. Troicki stepped it up in the 5th and won 6-1.
Nieminen v Fognini
Rankings are 54 and 69 and they have never met. Neither is posting impressive stats on service and as both men seem to prefer clay courts I can see a few mistakes and swings in this one.
Fognini hit a short spell of good form a couple of months ago but he has dropped off again since.
Should be a good match for scalping and in particular the 15-40. The winner is simply down to who makes fewer mistakes ( and there will be plenty )
If one guy seems to be getting on top, you could let a back bet run but try to close out at the end of that set. Its strange how one set can be totally different from the previous one.
Update: Nieminen won in 3 tight sets 7-5, 7-6, 6-4.