17:00 – Nadal v Del Potro
Rankings are 3 and 6 and head to head is 4-2 to Nadal although DP has won their last 2 meetings.
Nadal gets 67% of first serves in to DP’s 61%. Service games won are 85% and 84%. Nadal saves slightly more break points at 67% to DP’s 63%.
Nadal is probably the best returner in the game. He wins 36% of games against serve. Del Potro wins 28%.
I thought Nadal would have broken down earlier in the tournament and the fact that he is still there and playing well is down to his fantastic fighting spirit. BF has him at 1.75
Del Potro has had 3 days rest which could be a significant fact. He usually tires badly at the end of Slam events but he should be well prepared for today. That really evens things up for me.
Backing both players is how I will be playing this one. If you’re still getting used to that strategy, just back Nadal on serve.
I’m really looking forward to this one. I think Nadal will edge it as he wants it a little more. He’s close to taking back the world number 2 position.
Edit: It seems there is a doubt over Nadal’s fitness. His stomach muscle problem is still worrying him. If he isn’t fit then Del Potro has a good chance. Still stick with backing the server but be wary of a break against Nadal if his injury is troubling him. He should be fine for at least the first set even with an injury.
Update: I said before the tournament that the US Open had come too soon for Nadal. His stomach strain may have played a part ( I wasn’t able to watch live pics) but this was a round too far.
Del Potro won 6-2, 6-2, 6-2
21:30 – Federer v Djokovic
Rankings are 1 and 4. Head to heads are 8-4 to Fed who beat the Croat in the final of the Cincinnati Masters at the end of August and won the first set 6-1.
Fed is a strong fave at 1.26 . Djokovic has had by far the easiest route to this point with only Verdasco posing much of a threat. He won that match quite comfortably.
How close this match is depends entirely on Djokovic. We know how good Federer is going to be and if Djoker gets behind then it will be one way traffic. If he can keep the unforced errors to a minimum in the first set he could make a match of it.
Fed at 1.26 is a little low and I expect him to trade higher so laying him from the start and then hedging when his price rises to around 1.35-1.40 is an option. However if he breaks serve early you will have to hedge for the loss.
Better to back Fed on serve and hope that Djoker keeps it close in the first set to keep Fed’s price high enough to making backing his serves worthwhile.
Update: Djokovic put up a good fight but Federer won a tight match 7-6, 7-5, 7-5.
Djoker broke serve first so anyone laying Fed from the start was able to green up too 🙂
Midnight – Wozniacki v Clijsters
Clijsters is still unranked although won’t be for long. Wozniacki is ranked 8. They have never met.
Surely there is only going to be one winner. Clijsters has seen off both Williams sisters in this tournament. How many women have achieved that? This should be very onesided and Clijsters will complete the dream comeback.
She is 1.26 on BF. Not much value in backing her but I can’t see the point of laying her and hoping for a tight first set as I expect her to break early. I cant see too much profit in this one and may not even trade it. If you want to try out the 15-40 then this could be useful.
Now I have said that, it will probably be 7-6, 7-6!
Update: I didn’t trade this one but that was more down to the start time! (2:30am). The 1st set was close so maybe Clijsters’ price moved out at some point? However she finished the match off to win 7-5, 6-3. What an incredible return to world class tennis!