22:00 – Tsonga v F Gonzalez
Rankings are 7 and 11. They have never met.
The stats suggest this will be very close. Their service stats are almost identical with Tsonga winning 89% of service games to Gonzalez’ 87%.
On receiving serve Gonzalez converts 41% of break points to tsonga’s 38%. Games won against serve: Gonzalez is 24% and Tsonga 19%.
Tsonga is slight favourite at 1.74 . Both men have had an up and down season so far. Gonzalez’ attitude has been brought into question more than once but he seems focused for the Slam event.
I am slightly leaning towards Tsonga to progress.
You could back either player on serve ( or both ) and watch for 15-40 opportunities for either player.
Update: I only traded the first 2 sets and had to get some sleep. I got the feeling that Gonzalez was getting on top and that proved to be the case.
Gonzalez won 3-6, 6-3, 7-6, 6-4
For the night owls……
02:00 – Monfils v Nadal
Rankings are 13 and 3. Head to head is 4-1 to Nadal .
Stats on serve are good for both men with Monfils winning 86% of his service games to Nadal’s 85% ( although monfils’ first serve % is average at 61% )
A fit Nadal would win this quite comfortably but he isn’t 100% yet and is now having problems with stomach muscles.
Its hard to bet against even a semi fit Nadal and i’m not sure Monfils is the man to knock him out.
I recommend backing both players on serve but be ready to bail if one of them looks like he’s in trouble. If Nadal is able to complete the match he will win it. Nadal is at 1.56 on BF.
Update: Nadal won 6-7, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3
As for the other matches:
Easy wins for Clijsters, Murray and Serena Williams
Del Potro has a scrap on his hands against Ferrero who has won their 2 previous meetings ( both on clay ). DP’s starting price of 1.16 is way too low but I expect him to win it.
All the above proved to be correct except ofcourse Mr Murray……