Wednesday 22nd August 2012

This YouTube video perhaps explains why traders are best being in their own homes communicating with each other via forums. Imagine if the Betfair forums were actual rooms that you visited and worked in….

 

 

 

Lots more interesting matches today. Favourites came through in most cases yesterday although some had tough battles. Melzer looked dead and buried against American McClune but came through in a long third set tie break. Bartoli looked to be coasting against Stephens and took the opening set 6-1. She then lost 9 games in a row to trail 0-3 in the third set. Bizarrely she then won 6 in a row to take the match!

 

Safarova has been in great form. Ranked 17 in the world she must feel that she has a great chance of a decent run in next week’s US Open. She may not  want to go too deep into this tournament. Today’s opponent Zheng reached the third round at Wimbledon but other than that she has departed in the first round at all other recent events. She has improved on that this week beating Pironkova in straight sets in round one.

They have never played before but I feel Safarova should beat Zheng in her sleep. Her starting price is 1.60 and I’ll have a small position on her at the start while I assess her level.

Update: The first set was close. Safarova wasted several early break points including 4 in the very first game. She paid the price when it was Zheng who broke first. Safarova brok back and broke again for the set. Zheng had no more figh after that.

Safarova won 6-4, 6-0.

 

Gulbis is packed with talent and plays his best tennis on the hard courts. What he lacks at times seems to be the motivation to knuckle down when the going gets tough. He has played Granollers 3 times and leads the head to heads 2-1. He won their only previous hard court match in 3 sets. That was back in 2009 and was their most recent meeting.

Granollers has had an OK season and has improved him consistency over the last 12 to 18 months. He had a very solid win over American Harrison in the first round when I personally thought he would struggle.

Gulbis has already won 5 matches to reach this stage. His 3 rounds of qualification  saw him lose just 1 set as an underdog against Janowicz. After beating Berlocq in the first round of the main draw he went on to beat big serving Anderson in straight sets.

I think this will be tight with Granollers being slightly fresher. Gulbis has the advantage of having 5 matches on these courts but I expect Granollers to continue his good form and win through an up and down match. He starts at 1.78 and again i will take a small prematch position but will look to get the main bulk of my stake on him around 2.30 or better.

Update: Gulbis won the first break and just about held on for the set. After  that Granollers wasn’t broken again. One break for Granollers in set 2 and a double break in set 3 gave him the match.

Granollers won 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.

 

John Isner meets Melzer who appears to have the big man’s number. Melzer has won both their previous meetings. Having seen his last win over the American Melzer’s “secret” seemed to be simply stepping way back to take the serve and therefore negating the power of the serve. A smarter opponent would use a sliced wide serve which would be out of reach but Isner knows just one way to play and it either works or it doesn’t.

The market is feeling that Isner is about to get some revenge as his starting price is 1.30 and you have to think that Isner’s team have tackled the Melzer issue. Melzer came through a tough match with McClune but he seemed to struggle with the lower ranked player’s serve. I am banking on Isner’s serve being too big this time but also he has developed the sliced serve that would work against Melzer’s previous  tactics.

1.30 is too low though and I’ll be waiting for 1.60 .

Update:Isner didn’t face a single break point. Melzer was broken once in each set.

Isner won 6-4, 6-3.

    Trading Guide