Wednesday’s matches

Medina Garrigues v Vesnina: M G leads the head to heads 3-2 and 2-1 on hard courts.

Vesnina hasn’t been in great form recently although she beat Jankovic in the last round. I feel that win was more down to Jankovic giving less than 100%. Vesnina has proved to be mentally weak when things aren’t going her way. I also think that with her poor recent results she may be distracted by her win in the first round.

Medina Garrigues doesn’t often win in a stright forward fashion and if Vesnina can hold herself together she may keep the first set close but I would be very surprised if Medina Garrigues doesn’t win this. She will not feel she has much of a chance next week so will want to get the best result from this tournament as she can. She will be aware that some of the top seeds will be less motivated this week and has enough experience to attempt to take advantage of that situation.

Update: Medina Garrigues won 6-2, 7-6.

 

Nishikori v Monaco: Nishikori leads the head to heads 1-0. That match was in 2008’s US Open and I would say that the Japanese player has improved the most in the 3 years since then.

Nishikori served very well in his match with Adujar and won in straight sets. Monaco looked like losing the opening set with K mke although he was able to fight back and take the set 7-5 and then the match with a bagel in the second.

This will be a very tight match although I rate Nishikori as the better hard court player. He has had to come through the qualification rounds.

I will watch the opening couple of games before getting involved but I expect Nishikori to come through, perhaps in 3 sets.

Update: What the hell was that from Nishikori?? First set 0-6.

Monaco won 6-0, 6-2.

 

K Bondarenko v Cibulkova:  Cibulkova leads the head to heads 2-0 although their last match ( Sep 2010 ) was settled in a third set tie break.

Bondarenko has improved since that match and her serve has become a little more consistent with her holding serve  70% of the time compared to 65% from her opponent ( over the last 3 months ).

Cibulkova pulled out of her semi final of the Bank of the West Classic with Bartoli and then retired in the next tournament. She seemed to be ok in her first round match here but if she feels anything from that injury she won’t want to aggravate it before next week.

I give a slight edge to Bondarenko and will be laying from the start.

Update: Bondarenko won 6-3, 6-1.

 

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5 thoughts on “Wednesday’s matches”

  1. hi

    just wonder how you calculate monthly stats of tips ? winners are when trade was finished with even small profit, even when match went wrong but at last finished with profit?

    and losers are calculated as lost trades after matches finished with lost money?

    i speak about this:
    Blog tips – Hit rate
    For August:
    65 matches
    winners= 41
    losers= 20
    void= 4
    Hit rate = 67 %

    1. Hi,
      I put this up as I am aware of an increasing number of readers who use ther blog for purely betting tips rather than trading. I always try to put in the post who i think will win the match and it is done purely with that. If it was to do with trading it would be asy to make up the results and say I made a profit. That would be meaningless as everyone trades the matches differently.

  2. Hi,

    It would be much appreciated if you also could give average odds for the matches. Do you also have overall stats since you started giving tips?

    So far I mostly work with pre match betting and I haven´t started with trading intra matches yet but I find your site very helpful. Great job!

    What bet size in % of bankroll do you prefer during trade. When do you increase bet size? Do you use same betting method for both intra match betting and pre match betting?

    Keep it up!

    Anton

    1. Hi Anton,
      Thanks for the comments. I don’t have the stats from the start and have only done them for the last 2 or 3 months. A few people have asked me about average odds. I could look at including that from september although I’m not sure of its usefulness. I very rarely recommend a short priced favourite on the blog (unless its a final and the only game available) and always look for higher odds. I wouldn’t recommend a fave under , say, 1.40 and often go for underdogs so its not like I am simply tipping short priced “certs”.
      I use up to 10% of bank as stake although will increase that if the circumstances feel right. I do limited pre match trades but when i do I will often use larger stakes to get more benefit from the smaller price moves.
      The method is vaguely similar to in play methods in as much as I am looking for a price that seems “wrong” during the hours before the match.

      Paul

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