14:00 – S Williams v Zvonareva
Rankings are 1 and 21. Head to heads are 5-2 to Williams.
Zvonareva has had the tougher draw to get to this final. Her last 2 matches have been tough three setters against Clijsters and Pironkova.
Williams had a scare against Kvitova when she was broken in the first set and taken close in the tie break but she has still not lost a set in these championships.
Serena has spoken this week about how well her serve has been working this tournament. She has served 67% of first serves in and won 86% of points after a successful first serve. Points won on second serve are just 44%.
Break points saved are Williams 70%, Zvonareva 80%.
Williams has played in 10 Grand Slam finals and won 8 of them. This is Zvonareva’s first.
Williams has played 42 matches on grass in her career. And lost just 4 of them. 2 of those losses were Winbledon finals to Sharapova and to her sister Venus in 2008, although there was talk at the time that that final was Venus’ “turn” to win.
Williams starts at 1.18 . Laying her from the start is an option as she may start slowly. Do I really expect that to happen? No, but 1.18 is too low to back from the start. If I am waiting for a higher price to back Serena then I may as well gain a few ticks.
If Williams breaks early then I will switch. To be honest if she starts the match stronger then I will switch before a break.
Williams to win in 2 sets.
Update: The start of the first set was quite close until Serena broke to lead 5-3. She served out to take the set.
In the second set it was much more one sided and she took the set and the title.
Williams won 6-3, 6-2.
I had layed Williams at the start and perhaps should have backed her when her price reached 1.27 . However I was giving Zvonareva the chance to break which she didn’t take. After that it was one way traffic so managed a smallish profit.