Wimbledon 2012 – week 1, Friday

Nadal is out! We haven’t even played Friday’s games in week 1. World ranked 100 Rosol played the game of his life on Thursday. He led 2-1 but when Nadal levelled at 2-2 not many thought he’d be dumped out of the tournament a short while later. Does that open the door to the final for Murray? You bet it does. Can he walk through it. THAT we don’t know yet but this is his best chance so far of reaching the Wimbledon final. Querrey or Raonic will be the next hurdle. Querrey could do Murray a huge favour if he can beat Raonic when they resume on Friday.

Thursday saw Malisse knock out France’s Simon in straight sets. Melzer might have been motivated this week but that wasn’t enough to get past Lacko in 5 sets.

Britain’s Ward came so close to beating Mardy Fish but lost 3-6 in the 5th.

In the WTA Zheng got her first win over Wozniack and Lucic beat Bartoli in straight sets.

 

Today’s Matches:

Monaco is still going strong but has his toughest opponent of the week in Troicki. Monaco has only won this match once in 3 attempts and that was on clay. Troicki has needed 5 sets in both rounds so far. Monaco has lost just 1 set. Monaco is by far the most consistent of the two players and he has improved his all round game considerably since their last match in 2010. However I think his starting price of 1.50 is too low. In an ideal world Troicki gets an early break and we’re looking at evens to get on Monaco. I think he takes it in 4.

 

I haven’t seen Verdasco play this week but he has come through both his matches relatively easily. In the last round he needed tie breaks in the first 2 sets against Zemlja. Malisse’s favourite surface is grass and he has had a very successful few weeks with a quarter final and semi final in the last 2 tournaments. He hasn’t lost a set yet and proved too strong for Gilles Simon yesterday although Simon was able to create plenty chances he wasn’t able to take his opportunities.

Verdasco has won both their previous matches but this is their first meeting on grass. There has been a big move in the price in favour of Malisse and rightly so. Verdasco’s level throughout the match will be up and down whereas Malisse will be consistently high through most of a match on grass. Decent value at 1.80 but I will be holding some back to add to my position on him if he gets broken.

 

Its not unusual for Kerber to start slow and she is way too short at 1.26 against McHale. If anything McHale is a quick starter  who fades as the match goes on so this is a lay every time for me. They have played just once before which was in March on a hard court and Kerber took it in 3 sets.

 

Peng was not impressive at all in her last match and struggled with her serve. Rus is playing well and beat Stosur in the last round although its fair to say Stosur didn’t have her best ever day on a tennis  court. I just have a feeling here that if Rus’ mind is on this match and not her last one that she has the ability to take this. part stake lay at the start while I see if Rus is focused.

 

Cirstea beat Na Li in the last round in straight sets. She leads the head to heads with Kirilenko and won their only previous grass court match but that was in 2008. Their most recent matches were shared 1-1 with the underdog winning each time. Kiri’s price has dropped a little over night. I think we  will see 3 sets in this one and the value is with Cirstea. I will probably wait for a lower price on Kirilenko to lay early in the first set as long as Cirstea doesn’t start too badly.

 

Gasquet hasn’t really been tested so far this week and I’d expect that to change today. Almagro had a scare in the first round when he had to come back from 2 sets down against Rochus. He usually plays better as a tournament progresses. The Rochus match was his first on grass this year. These two have a couple of the best backhands you will see on tour and it will be an entertaining match. I’ll be laying Gasquet at 1.50 as this wil be close.

 

 

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