Wimbledon 2012 – week 1, Saturday

Federer went 2 sets down last night but whilst I’m sure a few more people thought he might lose due to Nadal’s exit the day before you were inclined to think that Fed has been in this situation so many times and would think his way out. In fact he has come back from 0-2 more times than any other currently active player.

Querrey out-served Raonic in 4 sets. he’s making a great comeback after his return from injury. Djokovic lost a set but that’s not really news as it happens so often.  Malisse came back from a terrible start against Verdasco to win in 5 sets. Youzhny turned on the style to beat Tipsarevic, a player who has given him real problems in the past. Disappointment of the day for me was the poor performance from Almagro against Gasquet. That match promised so much and to be fair Gasquet played his part but Almagro just wasn’t up to the task and lost in straight sets.

Heather Watson’s great run in the tournament came to an end against Radwanska. At 0-6, 0-4 her main aim was to avoid a double bagel which she managed, losing 0-6, 2-6.

Zvonareva wasn’t expected to trouble Clijsters but it was clear very early that all wasn’t right with her. towards the end of the first set she was crying almost constantly even when winning a game. The Doc was called and she had an off-court MTO and retired shortly after. I read on Twitter that she later played a mixed doubles match. I thought that wasn’t allowed on the same day as a player retired from a singles match??

The other story from the WTA was the fantastic performance of young Italian Giorgi. She took the opening set from Petrova and seemed unaffected by nerves as she served well and was hitting her shots, especially the backhand, so early that Petrova just couldn’t settle into the match. In the second set Petrova won an early break and looked to be taking control but Giorgi pulled back to win the set in a tie break.

 

Today’s Matches

Brian Baker hasn’t lost a set yet and starts at 1.64 against Paire. I think he has shown enough this week to justify that price and whilst Paire can keep this close and will take at least a set I will be on the American with part stake from the start.

Update: Baker won 6-4, 4-6, 6-1, 6-3.

 

Paszek may have a few problems with Wickmayer if the Belgian serves well but I think she is a decent price at 1.49 . She must be feeling the effects of her tough recent matches but I expect her to take this one.

Update: She DID have problems but a few more than I expected. Excellent performance from  Wickmayer but Paszek won 2-6, 7-6, 7-5.

 

Schiavone is underdog on Betfair against Zakopalova. They haven’t played for 8 years when Schiavone won in the US Open.  I really don’t understand why Zak is 1.60 here unless Schiavone is injured. Zak has been playing well enough but I will be laying her at that price.

Update: Zak didn’t compete in the first set. Played better in the second but it wasn’t her finest hour.

Schiavone won 6-0, 6-4.

 

Even though Roddick has found some of his old form and his serve seems to be back I don’t expect him to get past Ferrer today. The first set will probably be close and a tie break wouldn’t be a shock. In 4 of their last 5 matches the opening set went to tie break. For that reason I think laying Ferrer at 1.44 isn’t a bad call.

Update: The lay worked perfectly as Ferrer went 0-4 down. Ferrer got into the match after that and played as we expect him to.

Ferrer won 2-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-3.

 

Goffin starts as favourite against 12th ranked player Mardy Fish.  Fish needed 5 sets against James Ward in the last round and hasn’t been in the best of form.  I just don’t know about this price though and have enough doubts to stay away for the first few  games. That price shows a lot of faith in a young kid in a major tournament.

Update: As it turned out I missed the opening game and a half but saw enough to back Fish at 1.99 . Fish did the business shortly after and broke serve.

Fish won 6-3, 7-6, 7-6.

 

Finally Andy Murray takes on Baghdatis. Baggy played well to beat Dimitrov although his job was made easier after the first set by Dimitrov feeling unwell. He retired in the second set.

Murray didn’t have an easy match with big serving Karlovic but got the job done in 4 sets. Murray’s route to the final no longer involves Nadal but he has a lot of work to do before then. This will be another test of his mental strength as he needs to concentrate on only the next match. Baghdatis beat Murray at Wimbledon in 2006 but obviously things are different now.  Even so, Baggy beat him last year on a hard court in straight sets. This would be a mini shock if Murray loses but even more of a shock if he doesn’t trade higher than his starting price of 1.13 .

Update: I layed fairly heavily at 1.11 and 1.12. I traded out when Baggy was 2 points up on Murray’s serve at around1.28 . I layed again in  the third set and got lucky as Baghdatis broke in the next game. I traded out after the break and had to leave the game there.

Murray won 7-5, 3-6, 7-5, 6-1.

    Trading Guide