13:00 – Federer v Berdych
Rankings are 2 and 13. Head to heads are 8-2 to Fed although Berdych won their last match.
Federer had a real scare in the first round. He was 2 sets down to Falla. Since then he has looked more comfortable and he obviously has the greater experience at this stage of a slam.
Berdych has had the talent and ability for a long time but only in the last few months has he improved his mental strength. He used to lack self belief but now looks confident and calm under pressure.
The stats for the last 2 weeks are very similar but Berdych has won more points on his first serve.
1.26 is too low to be backing here. Fed has been more vulnerable over recent months although still has a great record.
If Berdych can start quickly then he has a chance of taking the first set. I will be laying him from the start. If Fed breaks early I will lay him again. I expect Fed to win but I can’t see it being in straight sets. Hopefully Berdych will take the first set.
Update: Berdych did take the first set. Federer came back stronger in the second set but Berdych was too good on the day.
Berdych won 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4.
This was the first of the Live Webinars. The first one was soon full and I felt I had to do another for the Nadal match. The match went pretty much as expected in the first 2 sets adn I was able to leave the match with a decent profit.
16:00 – Soderling v Nadal
Rankings are 6 and 1. Head to heads are 4-2 to Nadal.
Soderling’s tournament was going great until he came up against Ferrer. The clay court specialist just wouldn’t lie down and took Soderling to five sets.
Nadal had a knee problem in his match against Petzschner but still came through in five sets. In his next match he seemed fine and won in straight sets.
Nadal’s first serve percentage is high at 69%. He wins 89% of his service games.
Soderling is obviously known for big hitting and a big serve. His first serve percentage for the season is 60% although he has improved that in these championships to 63%.
Nadal’s price is 1.71 which is perhaps a little higher than it should be. This is probably due to concerns over Nadal’s potential knee problem. If the knee holds up then he is a definate favourite to take the match.
Soderling will need to end points quickly and make the most of his big serve. In long rallies you have to give an edge to Nadal who is a master of working the angles.
Nadal’s serve has improved over recent months and Soderling won’t be getting as many looks at second serves as he may have had in previous matches.
Watch the opening couple of games to let them warm up but both should be ok to back on serve. However, a word of warning. Nadal is one of the best returners on the tour. If Soderlings serve isn’t at its very best then Nadal will take advantage of that.
Update: Nadal was as poor as I have seen him in the first set and Soderling raced to a 5-0 lead. Nadal pulled a break back but it was too late. A disputed call from the umpire got Nadal fired up which is what he needed.
After that Nadal was on top but it was very very close. He levelled the match at 1 set all and took the third on a tie break.
The fourth set was very one sided with Soderling limping due to problems with his foot.
Nadal won 3-6, 6-3, 7-6, 6-1.
The second Webinar started well enough and I had a green screen of £87. It then seemed that everything I did went wrong and I skillfully reduced the profit to a £9 red.
I stuck with it and when Nadal was 2 sets to 1 up and Soderling was struggling I backed Nadal and he duely broke serve allowing me to let it run a little for another decent result.