World Tour Finals 2012, Friday

Looking at today’s prices and head to head records it looks as though we aren’t in for much excitement from the O2.

Both the under dogs are capable of upsetting the big boys on their day but realistically what can we expect?

 

Djokovic leads Tomas Berdych 10-1 in their previous matches. The Serb has come out on top in the last 8 encounters. That record has to affect Berdych’s confidence going into this match.

Against Murray Berdych took the opening set but the Scot really should have taken at least 1 of the many break points he wasted ( or were saved). perhaps that was down to it being the first set of the week. Djokovic has played 2 matches already and whilst he made a slowish start against Tsonga he showed much better form in his second match to beat Murray from being a set behind. If Berdych offers up 12 break points as he did to Murray you can bet he will take more than the two that Andy managed.

The Murray match will have sharpened Djokovic’s game which was far from its best against Tsonga. Berdych will need to be a lot better on his own service games to keep him in the game. If he can serve well I think we will see higher than the 1.23 currently available on Djokovic. We can either lay from the start or perhaps better to wait for an improved price to back the world number 1.

 

Murray has won his last 5 matches against Tsonga and leads the head to heads 6-2.  Both his previous matches have gone to 3 sets. He can be reasonably happy about how he has played. He missed out on many break point chances against Berdych but finished strongly.  He looked the better player for a set and a half against Djokovic but a poor service game virtually handed the second set to his opponent. During the early games of the third set he looked like a beaten man and a lot of unforced errors started creeping into his play. He did manage to break back but was broken as he tried to take the set into a tie break.

Tsonga  has lost both his matches but won’t be too disappointed with how he has played. Mathematically it’s possible for him to qualify for the semi finals but realistically he is out. We will know by the time this match starts whether Tsonga is still in with a chance.

I think we will see a close opening set and so there is a chance we see a higher price on Murray. In their last 4 matches, all won by Murray, Tsonga has won the opening set twice. However they only played one of those 4 matches on a  hard court and that was Murray’s strongest ever win over the Frenchman (6-2, 6-2). Murray needs the win to boost his confidence going into the latter stages.

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