World Tour Finals 2012 – Semi Finals

Del Potro kept himself in the tournament with a 3 sets win over Federer yesterday. He stole the last four place from under the nose of Spain’s David Ferrer who had beaten him earlier in the week.

His semi final opponent is Djokovic who leads their head to heads 6-2. In 2012 they have played 3 times with Djokovic winning the 2 most recent ( both on hard courts) in straight sets. Del Potro beat Djokovic at the Olympics also in straight sets.

Djokovic’s form has improved with each match although the same could be said of Del Potro.

The Argentinian giant is ending the year in fantastic form and despite just 1 of their previous 8 matches weren’t settled in straight sets I think today’s encounter is likely to go the distance.

Djokovic’s price of 1.25 is too low and I feel each set will be decided by a single break of serve.  Their previous hard court matches were won by Djokovic ( Del Potro had a win in a Davis Cup match when Djokovic retired) so I have to go with the world number 1 to take a place in the final.

Update: A late break for Del Potro allowed him to serve for the set.  He held serve and early in the second set he won another break. Djokovic broke back and broke again. He levelled the match at 1-1 . Del Potro was looking tired and Djokovic controlled the decider.

Djokovic won 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.

 

Murray leads the head to heads with Federer 10-8. It’s very unusual for Murray to start as favourite on Betfair. In fact I can only see 2 matches where the Scot began as the bookies’ pick before today. Murray starts at 1.75 .

Federer’s loss to Del Potro was mainly due to Del P’s excellent ground strokes and greater consistency. I don’t feel that Fed was resting as he had already qualified for the semi finals. If that was the case then winning the second set wasn’t a smart move. Federer’s form has tailed off a little by his own high standards. He has lost his last 2 matches against Murray in straight sets.

Murray has developed the mental side of his game so he can perform well in the big points in the big matches. It would be an amazing end to his best ever season if he can beat the 2 players who are ranked above him to take the last title of the year.

Federer has been struggling with his first serve this week. It almost allowed David Ferrer to win his  first set against him and was probably the difference between him and Del Potro.

On recent form Murray has  to be the pick. I’ll have part stake at 1.75 and will add the rest of Fed gets an early break.

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