World Tour Finals 2012, Wednesday

Potentially we have 2 fantastic matches today. To get us warmed up for the main event it’s Berdych v Tsonga. EDIT :Seems I got the order wrong! Murray is up first. Dohh!

Berdych leads the head to heads 4-1 ( Tsonga also has a “win” due to a walkover ). To keep things interesting Tsonga’s only win was at the World Tour Finals last year.

Berdych starts as slight favourite at 1.73 which isn’t terrible value.  Both are big servers but Berdych is a little more consistent over all.  Tsonga loses patience in long rallies and is more likely to go for a big winner. His shot choice in those situations often leaves a lot to be desired.

The scores in their respective opening matches maybe flatter them a little. Murray had a shed load of break points in the first set. Berdych can often save these with big serves but a few were down to poor errors from the Scot. Berdych can consider himself fortunate to have won a set.

Djokovic wasn’t at his best against Tsonga but still came through in straight sets. The Frenchman had a few chances but just couldn’t take advantage of them.

Sets between Berdych and Tsonga are usually decided by a single break.  Three  sets are a real possibility but I am going with consistency over showboating. Berdych for the win.


Incredibly there were still seats available for Murray against Djokovic and the organisers were having to push them after yesterday’s matches. Surely it is sold out now.

Djokovic leads the head to heads 9-7. They haven’t played on an indoor court since their very first match back in 2006.  Perhaps the more relevant results are from the last 2 years. Since the beginning of 2011 Djokovic leads 5-4.

Murray is by now no stranger to playing to big names on the big stages. Being the home player is now seen as an advantage rather than as added pressure. He got off to a slow start against Berdych although created more than enough break points to have won that first set. After that he settled into his game and took control.

Djokovic didn’t look quite himself against Tsonga but being a class higher than the Frenchman made a straight sets win possible. Is he still worried about his father? That situation may distract him a little although you would think if his condition was still serious then Djokovic would not be in London right now. I have seen it suggested that the stomach illness from last week may have been caused by worry about his father. We saw earlier in the year when his grandfather died that Djokovic’s game was affected. As usual we don’t know anything for certain.

Djokovic is at 1.85 on Betfair.

Murray has only twice won the first set and failed to win the match. That happened in their very first match and their most recent.  Djokovic has NEVER won the opening set and gone on to lose the match.

I am going for a Murray win here although I would like a lower price to lay Djokovic.

Update: Murray broke immediately in the opening set and held on easily for the set. In the second a single break gave the set to Djokovic. In the decider it was the Serb who broke first but Murray broke back for 4-4. At 5-5 Murray was broke again and Djokovic served for the match. Murray had 2 break points but wasn’t able to take them.

Djokovic won 4-6, 6-3, 7-5.

    Trading Guide