Yesterday we saw the favourites dominate the opening set and then fall away in the second. More of the same today would be very welcome 😉
Murray v Ferrer:
Murray leads the head to heads 5-3 and has won their last 4 meetings including 3 matches this year. He has won 18 of his last 19 matches.
Ferrer has improved greatly over the last 12 to 18 months and will hope to do better than last year when he lost all 3 matches ( I checked it this time!). He didn’t manage to win a single set against Fed, Murray and Soderling.
Murray starts at 1.17 on Befair and as their last 2 meetings were straight sets wins for the Scot chances of Ferrer taking the opening set seem remote. Having said that I didn’t expect 3 sets yesterday and as we’re near the end of a long season most players have some sort of injury that they have been playing with for a while.
Murray will obviously have the home crowd behind him. The courts did seem a little slow yesterday which may level the “playing field” a little but Murray is in great form too and he must fancy his chances of doing well this week.
Trading-wise Ferrer taking the first set would seem favourable and I’ll be waiting for that. We have been looking at other markets in the chatroom and I’m sure we’ll be doing the same again with this one.
Has to be a Murray win and I REALLY don’t see a 3 setter if both men are unaffected by their injuries.
Djokovic v Berdych:
Djokovic leads the head to heads 7-1 and has won their last 5 matches ( although in the last 2 Berdych retired.)
As Djokovic starts at 1.40 which is the highest SP for any of the first matches we have to suspect that he isn’t over his shoulder injury. The head to head suggests that he knows how to beat Berdych in his sleep and would he need to be fully fit to win this one?
I suspect that Djokovic has been putting in a little less effort than normal in the last couple of tournament so that he could give himself the best chance to do well this week. This is the event that people remember, not Paris or Basel.
As always Berdych will need his serve to keep him in the match. If it isn’t there he will really struggle. Having said that Djokovic’s shoulder has been slowing his serve down considerably and Berdych may get opportunities to attack the Serb’s serve, in particular the second serve. Djokovic has said to the press that he has been serving at 100% for the last couple of days.
If Berdych is to get another win over Djokovic then he must have a chance of doing so today. I have to take some of the 1.40 available from the start though and I will be managing the position in play.
For me, Djokovic at 75% beats Berdych unless the Czech player serves like Raonic.