Begu 1.54, Cepede 2.78
Begu leads their previous matches 2-1. They last met in an ITF tournament in Medellin, Colombia in March 2014. It was on clay and Cepede won in 3 sets. All their matches were on clay in 2014.
Overall results are quite even in last 12 months. Cepede has stronger hard court stats over that period. She beat Bencic in the last round in 3 sets. She has played some decent tennis on hard courts in 2018.
Begu had a tough 3 set win over out of form Christina Mchale in the last round. Begu had some problems on her second serve hitting 9 double faults and being broken 6 times.
I see some value on Cepede as I think she will take at least a set. There is a good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Begu below 1.40. Remove or reduce liability around 1.90. It will be tight but I give Cepede the edge.
Update: Cepede was broken in the 7th game but immediately broke back. She won 7-6, 6-1