Gavrilova 2.42, Tsurenko 1.69
Tsurenko has won all 4 of their meetings. They last played in a Fed Cup tie in February 2017. It was on an indoor hard court. Tsurenko won in straight sets. Gavrilova has managed just 1 set which was on a hard court in 2015.
Overall results were better from Gavrilova in the last 12 months. On hard courts she was also better over the 12 month period and has stronger results this year. She won 7 of 9 on hard courts in 2018. Tsurenko won 11 of 16.
Tsurenko is the defending champion this week. She has not lost a set so far. Her second serve was a little weak against Davis in the first round. That improved against Rodionova in round two. Her quarter final opponent was France’s Kristina Mladenovic in a repeat of last year’s final. That was perhaps her easiest win although Mladenovic didn’t serve well at all. Stats just for this week all favour Tsurenko.
Gavrilova has had to work a lot harder this week. Her double fault count has been high in every round. Eleven in the first round, 12 in the second round and 9 in the third. She needed 3 sets to beat Brengle in the first round and also went to a deciding set against Cepede who had performed well earlier this week
I see some value on Gavrilova and think she can take a set but don’t see her winning unless she can cut out the errors on her second serve.
Back Tsurenko if she gets broken or loses the first set.