Kuznetsova leads the head to heads 5-2. Their most recent meeting was this month and Pavlyuchenkova won on a hard court in 2 sets. Only 1 of their matches went to 3 sets. Pavlyuchenkova won their last 2 matches on hard courts. Kuznetsova’s last win on a hard court was the 3 setter in 2010.
Statistics for this year slightly favour Kuznetsova but they are closely matched.
I hadn’t expected Pavlyuchenkova to beat Svitolina but she did so in 3 sets. Her second serve was vulnerable in that match and she won just 35% of points on it.
Kuznetsova also had a really tough match in the last round. She beat Jankovic 9-7 in the 3rd set. She faced 15 break points in that match.
This can go either way so value is on Pavlyuchenkova as underdog. There was no real reason for Kuznetsova not playing well when they last met earlier this month.
Lay Kuznetsova if she breaks first