Due to start at 1 am
Osaka 1.67, Sevastova 2.46
They are 2-2 in their previous meetings. They last met earlier this month in Brisbane. Osaka won in 3 sets. All their matches have been on hard courts.
Overall results are very even in the last 12 months. On hard courts Osaka leads 78% v 66% matches won. Stats for the tournament are pretty even with Osaka having the smallest of edges.
Sevastova has dropped 1 set so far. She has served well overall. She was very comfortable in the first round against Mona barthel but in round two she lost the second set to Bianca Andreescu. She faced 11 break points in that match although was only broken 3 times. in the last round i expected a little more from Qiang Wang but Sevastova really lifted her level and faced just 1 break point. Her first serve was excellent.
Osaka has lost 1 set so far. She was very strong market favourite in her first two matches. She was fairly comfortable in those matches against Magda Linette and Tamara Zidansek. In the third round she was a set and a break down to Su-Wei Hsieh before getting her act together. She easily won the deciding set.
Six months and 3 months hard court results favour Osaka. Sevastova has been the more consistent player in this tournament. Three sets seem likely but I favour Osaka to win. Back Osaka around 1.95.
Update: Very tight match. Osaka was broken in the third game of the match and that was enough to lose her the set. A single break was also enough for Osaka to level the match. In the third Osaka broke serve at the start but Sevastova pulled back to 33. She was immediately broken again and Osaka held on for the match.
Osaka won 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.