Puig won their only previous meeting. That was in an American ITF clay tournament in 2013. She won in 2 close sets.
Stats on all surfaces for this year favour Osaka. On hard courts for the year she is still ahead but their last 10 matches show a small edge for Puig.
This should be a close match with tight sets. There is some value on Osaka at the start. I give a slight edge to Puig but think she will trade higher than 1.54 .
Back Puig if she is broken first.